Support is growing for Labour and Tories – figures
THE latest opinion poll ahead of the Senedd election suggests Labour support is hardening as the vote on May 6 approaches, writes Will Hayward.
Savanta ComRes questioned 1,002 people and found Labour and Tory support growing, in comparison to previous polls, but Plaid Cymru falling back below 20% and into third place.
The poll was carried out between April 23 and 28 and is the first time Savanta ComRes have polled Wales in recent elections.
When asked about Welsh independence, 28% said they would vote yes, 57% said they would vote no and 14% were undecided. Only 1% said they preferred not to say.
In terms of constituency voting the poll by Savanta ComRes gives:
■ Labour – 36% (+1 on YouGov)
■ Conservative – 27% (+3)
■ Plaid Cymru – 19% (-5)
■ Lib Dem – 5% (+2)
■ Abolish – 4% (+1)
■ Reform UK – 4% (unchanged)
■ Other – 5% (+2)
These findings are a significant blow for Plaid Cymru and replicate what was seen in the poll of 2,000 people by Opinium for Sky News a week earlier.
Opinium had Labour on 40%, the Tories on 30% and Plaid also on 19%.
YouGov has been reporting higher levels of support for Plaid Cymru in its polls so far in the election campaign.
However, all three of the latest polls from three different polling firms now appear to be projecting that Labour is on course to avoid the dire result that had initially been forecast in the earliest polls of the election campaign.
ComRes’ findings would put the party on a similar course to April’s YouGov poll, which would leave it the dominant largest party but without an overall majority.
That, however, would still equal the party’s worst result in a Welsh election, when it won 26 seats in 2007. When asked how they would vote in the regional ballot, ComRes said the findings were as follows:
■ Labour – 31% (-2)
■ Conservative – 24% (+2)
■ Plaid Cymru – 21% (-2)
■ Abolish – 8% (-1)
■ Lib Dem – 5% (+1)
■ Green – 3% (-1)
■ Reform UK – 3% (NA)
■ Ukip – 2% (NA)
■ Other – 3% (-3)
These findings are very similar to YouGov’s and would put Abolish the Assembly on course to win at least two seats in the next Senedd, and the Lib Dems fighting to hold onto just one.
The poll was carried out before Thursday night’s leaders debate.