Cabinet rejigleaves trio in pole position to be new First Minister
WHEN Mark Drakeford named his new cabinet, not only did he dramatically reshape his top team, but he also gave some clues as to who his successor could be.
The new-look cabinet, named last week, is important to look at in terms of the future of Welsh Labour.
Mr Drakeford has said he will not serve a full five-year term as First Minister, and questions are already being asked about who his successor could be.
The big three roles of health, education and economy are filled by the three people currently most likely to consider a leadership bid.
Former Health Minister Vaughan Gething was moved to economy, with Eluned Morgan promoted to health.
Jeremy Miles, who is often discussed as a potential future leader, was promoted to the education portfolio in the reshuffle after Lib Dem Kirsty Williams had already opened the door to a new education minister by not standing again.
Last time there was a leadership battle in Labour. Mr Gething and Mrs Morgan both put their names forward.
We asked three experts what the reshuffle means in terms of the future of Labour and if there is anyone else in the cabinet who is a future leader in the making.
■ Cathy Owens, political consultant and former special adviser
The reshuffle was a mix of a number of issues – a reflection to a degree of longterm friendship and s support, and as one w would expect, outright talent and potential, but also the reality of the very heavy shifts that some ministers have put in, and the willingness of some cabinet members, more than others, to jump in feet first and help out with the very stressful, very long hours in tackling the pandemic.
In discussions on cabinet roles and leadership, let’s not overlook Julie James, who has emerged as Mark Drakeford’s right hand.
She is fiercely intelligent and driven, and after chairing the most successful election campaign, she is rewarded with a super portfolio role, the one she would have chosen, and with a partner in Lee Waters she will be very happy about.
It is the dream delivery team. One has to ask why we always overlook Julie and women like her for leadership roles.
But in terms of Vaughan, Eluned and Jeremy, I can see all three being on a future ballot, but possibly with different betting odds than before the crisis.
There is no doubt about the shift that Vaughan has put in, which meant he could agree his next move with MD.
Eluned has jumped in two feet first and has convinced MD that she has the drive to take over the hardest job on offer. And Jeremy will now be tested in his first big delivery role (with apologies to constitutional nerds).
So I would say the four potential FMs have all got the big roles.
That is a testament, in the main, to MD rewarding talent and drive, and Welsh Labour more widely being able to get past the weird factional stuff we see in other elements of the party.
It’s the most inspired reshuffle, with the right people in the right places, for the right reasons. Which is vital because whoever you voted
for, we all rely on them to help us get through the next few years.
■ Matt Greenough, f former special adviser to Carwyn Jones
The leadership contest does look like a three-horse r race.
Jeremy Miles, E Eluned Morgan and V Vaughan Gething have traditionally the three most prominent jobs in cabinet and fairly clear ambitions for the future.
If each does make a bid for the leadership, it is likely that they will hoover up enough nominations to make it difficult for anyone else to get on the ballot paper.
They already have strong supporters, and both Eluned and Vaughan exceeded expectations in the last leadership contest which everyone predicted as a shoe-in for Mark Drakeford.
There’s a long time to go yet, however. Mark isn’t going anywhere soon. And politics can always derail what seems like a racing certainty.
Who might spring a surprise? There’s no obvious standard bearer for the left amongst the three quoted above.
Mick Antoniw has returned as Counsel General and is most closely associated with the Corbyn project. He might consider a run.
Julie James is a formidable politician and a more progressive view of the cabinet jobs might suggest that hers is at least as big a job as the traditional big three of education, health and economy.
Rebecca Evans has showed all the understated can-do confidence you want in a successful Finance Minister.
Vaughan, Eluned and Jeremy are worthy favourites for now.
The election of one will have the very happy consequence of breaking new ground – Wales would have its first ever black, female or gay First Minister.
But, one final consideration is worth pondering.
The Senedd has never had a leader representing a north Walian seat.
Labour has five north Walian
MSs, and is locked in a continual fight to show the relevance of devolution to the north.
If the north Wales group agreed to put forward a candidate, it would only need one more nomination to get them on the ballot paper. And once you’re on the ballot, it is game on.
■ Laura McAllist ter, professor at C Cardiff University
There’s been no t time for Welsh Labour to bask in the glory of an outs standing Senedd e election result.
The ‘new’ First M Minister had to get straight down to business.
His newly-appointed cabinet for the sixth Senedd term offers a fair degree of freshness, indicating how energised Mark Drakeford must feel after such a personal success.
That is it two-thirds female is impressive by any comparative international standards.
Still, that doesn’t mean it is automatically a ‘feminist government’, only a female-dominated one for now.
The former label will need to be earned over the full Senedd term.
It was encouraging to see the creation of the powerful new climate change ministry merging environment, energy, housing, planning and transport and led by the eminently capable pair of Julie James and Lee Waters.
They’ll need to be sure this ministry doesn’t promise more than it can deliver though.
There are two new deputy ministers, Lynne Neagle and Dawn Bowden, the latter at the so-called Ministry of Fun, although I’m not sure sports and the arts feel they live up to that label at the moment, ravaged as they have been by Covid.
The big political talking point is the three likely contenders to take over the mantle of Welsh Labour leader and First Minister once Mark Drakeford steps down at some point during this term.
It’s all about platform and visibility as the past 14 months have vividly shown.
The big hitters have all moved to different portfolios.
Vaughan Gething, after an unbelievably tough five years at health, moves on to economy with a heavy focus on post-pandemic rebuild.
This is a double-edged sword, given the downbeat forecasts for future Welsh budgets from my Wales Governance [Centre] colleagues, but there’s plenty of praise and positivity to be garnered in this portfolio too.
Jeremy Miles was surely itching for a fresh role after his (mostly futile) striving for a Welsh voice in the Brexit negotiations and then against the UK Internal Market bill obstinacy of Westminster. So onwards to education. Dealing with PISA rankings and the teaching unions is never easy but there are plenty of positives here too, especially with a brand new curriculum on the horizon.
Labour has never had a female leader despite its tremendous record on promoting women MSs.
This time round Eluned Morgan shouldn’t be scrambling around for nominations to get on the ballot paper. Health is going to be massively high profile for sure, but likely for all the wrong reasons.
Covid recovery, a hefty backlog of routine operations, never mind the metal health impacts as we emerge from the traumas of a pandemic, but Eluned is a tough cookie who’s been around the political block and she’ll be relishing the opportunity to stamp her authority on the portfolio and, in so doing, elevate her profile ready for a leadership challenge.