Why has the SNP been so much more successful than Plaid Cymru?
Are there lessons Plaid Cymru can learn – or are the two nations simply too different? Welsh affairs editor Will Hayward reports
IN THE devolved elections of 1999 the SNP and Plaid Cymru were in a very similar position. It was the first time either party had been able to take part in an election for a government in their own nation – and they returned very similar results.
The SNP won 27% of the total seats in the Scottish Parliament and Plaid Cymru won 28% in the then Welsh Assembly. Both were roundly beaten by the Labour Party who won 43% of Scottish seats and 47% of Welsh.
Roll forward 22 years to the elections on May 6 and the two parties are poles (and polls) apart. One of the only similarities is that they both put independence of their respective countries at the heart of their election campaign.
The SNP has become a political juggernaut. Winning 64 seats, more than the Tories (31) and Labour (22) combined, they continued their tight grip on power.
By contrast Plaid Cymru’s election was a real disappointment with them slumped in third place with 13 seats behind Labour (30) and the Conservatives (16).
They may have gained one seat overall but they lost the Rhondda where former leader Leanne Wood lost her seat to Labour.
By Plaid’s own expectations this can’t be seen as anything other than a disaster.
Last year leader Adam Price said that any result which wasn’t him as First Minister would be a failure. Not only did he not become the First Minister, he also failed to be a power broker in the aftermath as Labour managed to secure a working majority.
So how has this happened? How have two parties who were in a similar position in 1999, seen such differing fortunes two decades later? And why is the issue of independence seemingly such a winner in Scotland as opposed to Wales?
To answer these questions the Western Mail spoke to three leading academics and political analysts:
■ Dr Jac Larner, research fellow at Edinburgh University and lecturer in politics at Cardiff University;
■ Professor Richard Wyn Jones, director of the Wales Governance Centre; and,
■ Professor Laura McAllister, professor of public policy and the governance of Wales at the Wales Governance Centre and Western Mail columnist.
These are complicated questions and complicated questions unusually have complicated answers but we have brought together some of the key themes to help understand why Plaid are in the position they are in.
■ Welsh Labour and Scottish Labour are very different beasts
You can’t assess the relative performance of Plaid and the SNP without first looking at their respective opponents – Labour.
Scottish Labour is not on the same level of Welsh Labour. It sounds obvious but it bears repeating.
“There is the weakness of Scottish Labour,” Dr Larner. “In Scotland, Labour went through a series of leaders in quick succession and failed to establish a distinctive Scottish voice and identity.
In Wales, Welsh Labour have been so strong because they were able to at least portray a level of distinctiveness from UK Labour under leadership of the very popular Rhodri Morgan.”
This distinctive identity has been continued by [First Minister] Mark Drakeford (we will get to him in a bit) and it has meant that becoming the dominant party in Wales has been a far harder proposition than it was in Scotland.
Prof McAllister agreed saying: “The problem for Plaid Cymru was Welsh Labour have always been a party comfortable with their
Welsh identity whilst actively exploiting it at times.”
■ Comparing the SNP and Plaid is like comparing oranges and apples
According to Prof McAllister, the origins and makeup of the respective parties meant that the SNP already had a head start.
She said: “The sort of civic nationalism that the SNP was able to drive, even before modern democratic devolution, but certainly in the runup to the establishment of the Scottish Parliament, gave it a much more rational, balanced and broader platform than Plaid Cymru was able to use because of Plaid’s origins.
“Plaid was established to protect the Welsh language and culture and to protect Wales in a very general sense, all without the infrastructure of a semi independent state to give real credibility and cre
dence to that.”
■ Did Plaid’s focus on independence hurt it in the 2021 election?
This was the first election where Plaid Cymru put the issue of Welsh independence at the front and centre of its campaign.
If we delve into the data from the election they make interesting reading. Despite the overall disappointing election result, Plaid’s vote massively increased in its heartlands.
In Ceredgion Elin Jones saw a 14 percentage point increase in her vote with Sian Gwenllian saw an eight point increase in Arfon.
However big target seats in Blaenau Gwent (-20) and Llanelli (-8) saw large falls in their vote share.
So was the focus on independence just preaching to the converted?
According to Dr Larner, people in Wales simply do not care about independence enough for it to be a vote winner like it is in Scotland.
“Independence is far less salient in Wales,” he explained.
“Whereas in Scotland it’s the dominant political and societal cleavage at the moment.
“So for most Welsh voters, even those who are favourable to independence, just don’t think about it too often.”
In the run up to the election the Western Mail spent time talking to people in the town of Porth in the Rhondda about whether independence was a big issue for them.
This was the area that saw a huge drop in support for Plaid that led to
Leanne Wood losing her seat.
Though not an academic study the overwhelming anecdotal evidence from the area suggested that people had no strong opinions on the issue of Welsh independence and simply wanted to see action on jobs and to support local amenities.
Prof Wyn Jones felt that, whether it worked in this election or not, Plaid is going to have to maintain this vocal support to differentiate from Welsh Labour who have shifted to support further devolution.
When asked if the focus on independence hurt Plaid in the last election he said: “In the aggregate probably not, though it might have hurt in particular places.
“I can tell you properly in a few weeks when we’ve analysed the data from the Welsh Election Study.
“Over the longer term, though, it was probably necessary for them to focus on this, not least because Welsh Labour is now camped out so firmly on the territory that used to be Plaid’s own. Home rule, standing up for Wales, and all that!”
He added: “This was probably the first election in which Plaid had independence at the top of its agenda and my guess is that that led to a re-composition of its vote i.e. some former supporters left but were replaced by others who were attracted by the stress on independence.
“So you might say that the fact that Plaid stood still despite running a poor campaign is at least testament to the fact that the stress (for the first time, really) on independence didn’t damage them in any fundamental way.”
■ Labour in Wales have been far better at managing the issue of independence
When looking at why independence hasn’t been such a vote winner for Plaid there is also the fact that Welsh Labour haven’t allowed it to cause the same internal damage as has been the case in Scottish Labour.
“It’s also important to note that Welsh Labour is much cannier than Scottish Labour,” said Prof Wyn Jones.
“The latter has, in effect, shown the door to its previous (rather large number of ) independence-supporting voters. But as it has ‘purified’ its vote base of such ‘heretics’, it’s been much weakened as a political force.
“Welsh Labour is determined not to repeat this mistake (as they regard it) and has worked very hard not to alienate those among its supportbase who support independence. Hence the soft-nationalist framing, the stress on home rule and radical constitutional change.”
■ The SNP have simply been more “brutal”
Observers of Scotish politics will know that the SNP can be brutal at times.
Prof McAllister believes this has been a factor in their success.
She explained: “One of the things the SNP has done very well is be politically pragmatic – and a little bit brutal.
“You can make your own call on whether you want political parties to be as brutal as the SNP have been.
“Or you can say that this is the only way that you can usurp a major party’s hegemony like Scottish Labour’s.
“What I mean by brutal is that the SNP had one goal which was to take over from Scottish Labour and to govern in the new parliament, and it set about making sure that actually happened as a precursor to an independence referendum.”
Prof Wyn Jones also believes there are issues within Plaid that need to be overcome before it has a chance of posing a similar electoral threat to Labour.
“A large part of the answer is boring: it’s organisational,” he said.
“The party is well behind Labour and Tories on this score. It has been for a while and yet it’s done nothing about it.
“As a smaller, poorer party than the ‘big two’ it needs to be cleverer than them, but it hasn’t been that for a long while now.”
■ Being in power makes life easier
When comparing the fortunes of Plaid and the SNP in the last election it is impossible to overlook the overwhelming political advantage that comes from being in power during a national crisis like a pandemic.
The enormous rise in popularity of Mr Drakeford, who added 10,000 to his majority in Cardiff West, is testament to this.
The Tories in England, Labour in Wales and the SNP in Scotland all enjoyed success in the country where they held power on May 6.
Dr Larner said: “A lot of this is just down to how successful the SNP have been electorally.
“Elites in power have a lot of influence over the narratives set and can influence the salience of different issues. “
■ Independence is simply an easier sell in Scotland
“Far fewer people travel across the Scottish border for work,” explained Dr Larner. “Scotland has remained more distinct from England in many ways. Wales has been much closer integrated over many centuries.”
This gets to the heart of a fundamental challenge that Plaid faces in making independence a big vote winner outside its traditional heartlands.
When the north west of England saw a spike in cases due to the Kent variant, the north of Wales swiftly followed suit.
This longer and more porous border, with many people having strong links on either side, speaks to why independence is going to be a hard sell for Plaid.
Dr Larner added: “Scotland has also been institutionally distinct from England for centuries: it has a distinct legal system, a separate education system, as well as many other institutions an independent country would need.
“Conversely, Wales has historically been far more integrated with English institutions.”