No guarantees as NHS on cliff edge
JUST a month ago, the First Minister reassured the Welsh public that Christmas is likely to be more normal this year.
Mark Drakeford said that providing nothing unexpected happened, Wales could look forward to a holiday season “much more like the ones we are used to”.
But over the past few weeks coronavirus has not only remained with us, but infection rates have risen to record-breaking levels across the country.
For the seven-day period between October 14 and 20, the infection rate reached a staggering 730.8 cases per 100,000 people, with some local authorities seeing rates in excess of 1,000.
While this, thankfully, has not resulted in the same boom in hospital admissions, the levels are nevertheless increasing at a steady rate. As of November 5, some 75 people were in intensive care units severely unwell with confirmed Covid.
To put this into context, on the same date 12 months earlier – prior to the arrival of the second wave – there were 48 people.
What makes this autumn/winter period different from a year ago is the substantial volumes of regular NHS activity now taking place as staff try to tackle the mammoth backlog of elective appointments and procedures.
It means there are now fewer available beds than at any point since the pandemic began.
Therefore it can be no wonder that Health Minister Eluned Morgan, speaking during yesterday’s Welsh Government press conference, is fearful our health service could be overwhelmed in the coming weeks.
The dual problem of Covid and a rise in seasonal ailments such as flu, RSV and winter vomiting bugs is undoubtedly going to lead to an influx of patients into the system. Baroness Morgan was also worried about take-up in the annual flu jab being down on last year, which may also compound the problem.
That’s why, at this stage, there are in fact no guarantees we are in for a more normal winter as the NHS is on a cliff edge when it comes to bed capacity.
It’s also never helpful when repeated public health messaging regarding Covid, such as the wearing of masks, gets flagrantly disregarded by those in the most influential positions.
We all have a responsibility to take the pressure off the NHS, whether that’s through taking our jabs, wearing our masks or only using its services when absolutely necessary.