Winter wave of virus is ‘unlikely’
THE expert whose modelling helped instigate the first coronavirus lockdown said he does not think restrictions will be needed this Christmas.
Professor Neil Ferguson, a member of the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage), said he feels it is “unlikely” Britain will see a “catastrophic winter wave” similar to that seen last year, which led to months of further lockdown across the UK.
With high levels of Covid immunity and a strong booster vaccination programme, the epidemiologist said he “very much” hopes a clampdown of the sort being ordered in some parts of Europe can be avoided in the UK.
The Imperial College London academic also said he would be in favour of booster vaccinations being rolled out to “younger age groups”, once the most vulnerable have been given top-up jabs, in order to slow transmission.
He said modelling from the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine has indicated that expanding eligibility for the booster shots could help “drive down transmission to low levels”.
The prediction comes after Prime Minister Boris Johnson warned on Friday that “storm clouds” of a new coronavirus wave are gathering over parts of Europe.
Many European countries are seeing an increase in cases and preparing to step up restrictions.
The Netherlands has confirmed a three-week partial lockdown amid surging cases, Austria is set to impose a lockdown on unvaccinated people, while German politicians are considering legislation that would pave the way for new measures at the same time as the country’s disease control centre is urging people to cancel or avoid large events.
Prof Ferguson – dubbed “Professor Lockdown” in some sections of the media – said the UK is in “quite a different situation” to its European counterparts due to having a greater level of immunity among its population following months of high virus prevalence.
He said the fast rollout of booster jabs has also given the UK – whose devolved nations can impose their own lockdown rules – an advantage in the fight to control Covid.
Prof Ferguson said he hopes the immunity levels mean the UK can “avoid” returning to social distancing restrictions this winter. He added: “I think it is unlikely we will get anything close to what we had last year, that catastrophic winter wave.”