Is a Labour-Plaid deal in the offing?

IT’S no surprise that Labour and Plaid Cymru are on the verge of announcing a deal that amounts to a joint programme for government.

Before the Senedd election in May, there was a widespread expectation that the two parties would end up in a full-blown coalition.

But Labour exceeded its own expectations by winning 30 seats – one more than in the last term.

That put paid to the idea of Plaid leader Adam Price becoming Deputy First Minister, with a number of other Plaid ministers in the Cabinet.

But Labour was still one seat short of an overall majority and needed a partner to be sure of getting its budgets through.

There was never going to be a pact with the Conservatives and there was little appetite on either side for an agreement with the solitary Liberal Democrat, Jane Dodds.

That left Plaid as the only available option.

Negotiations have been going on between the two parties for months and recently Welsh Labour’s leader and First Minister Mark Drakeford expressed frustration that a deal hadn’t been done.

It’s likely that Plaid has been pressing on a number of fronts, realising that it needs to be seen to be making a tangible difference.

New policy initiatives on second homes and council tax appear to be in the mix.

The Conservatives have already repeated their usual charge that Plaid are no more than “Labour’s little helpers”. That’s how Plaid will be perceived by people who would never vote for them.

But in many ways a Labour-Plaid deal will make sense for the parties and their supporters, given the similarity between them on virtually all policy issues except independence for Wales.

There is no realistic possibility of a Yes vote for independence in a referendum at this stage, even if Prime Minister Boris Johnson was inclined to grant one.

Any deal between the two parties will undoubtedly be advantageous to Labour, but for Plaid its merits are more dubious.

The party will make the most of whatever concessions it has wrung from Labour, but it won’t have seats round the Cabinet table. It probably thinks the agreement should be sufficiently tight for that not to matter.

The fine detail of this planned deal is yet to emerge. It will be interesting to see whether Plaid has left itself any wriggle room.