Can Labour deliver a ‘positive vision’ to gain power in 2024?
The Labour Party has been advised to present a ‘positive vision’ if it is to have a chance of winning the next general election – yet the war in Ukraine is expected to make the cost-of-living crisis worse. How can such a circle be squared, asks Political
WHILE the results of tomorrow’s local elections will be interesting, the next general election – which is much more interesting – may still be two years away.
The dilemma facing all political parties – but especially Labour, which hopes to win power at Westminster – is how to present an attractive vision for the future at a time when the war in Ukraine is likely to have a damaging long-term effect on the economy.
In recent days there has been much nostalgia about the election 25 years ago when Tony Blair won a landslide victory that, in terms of seats won, eclipsed Labour’s epoch-making post-war triumph in 1945.
The refrain that accompanied the 1997 result was, of course, “Things Can Only Get Better”.
While that may have seemed apposite at the time, today we can’t be anywhere near as confident.
The cost-of-living crisis is undoubtedly pushing more people into poverty and the conflict in Ukraine is likely to make things materially worse.
Yet Labour has been advised to “mirror the consistency of messaging and positive vision used by the party ahead of Tony Blair’s first election win while stressing that it is not enough to simply borrow from the past”.
A report called Lessons from a Landslide has been written by political historian Anthony Broxton along with Labour in Communications, a network of party supporters in the media and PR industries.
It says the party must aim for “simplicity and consistency in message”, pointing out that Boris Johnson’s ubiquitous “Get Brexit done” slogan in 2019 was much more effective than anything Labour came up with at the time.
Referring more specifically to party leader Keir Starmer, the report says a key to Labour’s success will be “whether he can neutralise the inevitable criticism that the party is still part of the London remainer elite”.
It states: tes: “While Starmer has sought to o reposition Labour as a more overtly ertly patriotic force, the next challenge allenge would be to move beyond eyond the flags and demonstrate trate to the British public why Labour values are British values alues on a more consistent and nd impactful basis.
“By [the he general election in] 2024, single ngle issues such as Partygate e will have long faded from view, w, however, the theme of Johnson’s on’s leadership, and the consequences equences of his governance, nce, will remain,” the report said. aid.
“Over the next few years, Labour’s task is to turn that narrative into a powerful policy platform that meets the challenges of today rather than those of 25 years ago.”
But how possible is that going to be in the world we now inhabit? Financial Times columnist Martin Sandbu explains p the challenge succinctly: “It is easy to see how the cost-of-liv living crisis, which is compounded co by war an and snarledsupp supply chains, and which is probaalready putting a chill on demand, could erod erode western leaders’ focus on Ukraine.
“To let this th happen would be an error and a failure.
“An error, because beca inflation in the west we is to a
significant extent made in Moscow.
“A failure, because it would mean that political leaders had neglected their chief task of preparing the public for the unavoidable hard choices to come.
“Western politicians must explain to their voters that the cost of living crisis is likely to worsen, and why.”
Sandbu goes on to argue that the price of freedom in Europe is paid by Ukrainians first and foremost, but also by others in countries like the UK who worry how they will be able to keep on their lights and heating, buy healthy meals for their children or keep their businesses running.
Western politicians should be telling their people that the cost of energy has soared because Putin has turned oil and gas into weapons, and the price of food is going up because he is laying waste to Europe’s most productive farmland. Our sanctions on Russia inevitably involve economic sacrifice from ourselves.
Prices of energy, food and com
modities could go up further. Our economic growth and our incomes may slow.
Should Putin cut off more of Russia’s gas supply overnight, we cannot pretend that we would not be harmed.
The politicians should say: “Something like a wartime economy is being imposed on us. We must not shrink from it. That requires all of us to put the common good first.
“Those with broader shoulders must be prepared to contribute more in taxes. Those most exposed to inflation should expect more help but also accept that help cannot do away with the need to adapt.
“We may have to ration some essential goods. And we have to help those countries worse placed than us, or their problems will soon be ours.”
Conveying such messages to a population that hasn’t been on a full war footing since 1945 will not be easy.
Nevertheless, Blaenau Gwent Labour MS Alun Davies thinks his party’s starting point must involve taking the fight to the Conservatives.
He said: “What I’ve noticed very much during this local election campaign is that whereas in 2019 Boris Johnson was seen as a clown king, he’s now just seen as a clown.
“There’s a lot of dislike, disgust and even hatred for him, and those feelings are extended to the whole of the UK Government.
“This change in attitude is one of the most extraordinary things I’ve seen in my political lifetime.
“The challenge for Labour is to ensure that people don’t just have a strong personal dislike for Johnson, but that they see that he represents what the Conservative Party is now all about. We’ve seen a Tory peer’s home being raided by the police and the irregular awarding of Covid contracts on an industrial scale.”
Mr Davies said he believes we are going through a period of major political change.
“Labour’s role in part is to articulate what is happening, but also to come up with solutions,” he said.
“The tax system needs to be reformed. At present the vast majority of people are paying more in tax while some people are getting away with paying no tax at all. This needs to change.
“What’s also become very clear to me during this election campaign is that people expect politicians to take action that will materially improve their lives. There are two very specific concerns in the context of the cost-ofliving crisis: the rising costs of fuel and food.
“The French government has greatly limited the increases energy companies are able to impose on consumers, while the UK Government has responded very weakly.
“It is appalling that BP has just announced record profits, at a time when ordinary people are being forced to pay through the nose.
“We need to have much better regulation of energy prices, geared to protecting the consumer rather than bolstering the profits that go to shareholders.
“Brexit has undoubtedly caused problems for our food producers, making it much more difficult for them to export their produce. We need to give more support to them so they can produce affordable food for the home market.”
These ideas may identify solutions, but they are solutions for a Europe at peace.
Whether they will be sufficient if war creates havoc for our economy in the way that it could remains an unanswered question.