Realistically, even with Gatland back at the helm, third is best we can hope for this year
After the woeful autumn under Wayne Pivac, Welsh rugby received some much needed cheer when Warren Gatland returned as Wales coach – but I’m just wondering if people are piling too much expectation upon his shoulders.
I’m hearing talk that Wales will suddenly be challenging for the Six Nations title again when the tournament kicks off at the weekend, but if truth be known anything over fifth spot, our position under Pivac last year, will represent an improvement.
Personally, at the very least, I want to see us in a credible battle with England for third place, accepting Ireland and France are a class apart right at this moment in time.
But Gatland has an awful lot to deal with. Not least he will have to experiment quite a bit, managing the game time of the old guard he has picked whilst also giving suitable opportunities to the younger members of the squad. This is hardly ideal in a World Cup year when the Six Nations should be used for bedding in your best team, fine-tuning tactics and patterns of play.
As I see it, Gatland’s biggest problem is at 12. He had a very set way of playing during his first tenure as Wales coach, Warrenball as it became known, go forward before you earn the right to go wide, and for many years Jamie Roberts was fundamental to that approach, then Hadleigh Parkes.
I’m not sure Gatland has that kind of individual to call upon at the moment. He’ll want to look at the younger centres like Joe Hawkins, Mason Grady, Keiran Williams to see if they are the solution. Might I suggest a radical alternative in the shape of George North?
Roberts used to be a wing or fullback. It was Gatland who saw the value of converting him into an inside centre, where his blockbusting runs made him such a pivotal figure for Wales and indeed the Lions.
North is similar. He made his name as a wing, he’s moved to 13 more recently, does Gatland go one step further and move him to 12? Like Roberts, North has the size and stature and is an extremely difficult person to stop when on the charge.
There are two other primary issues that concern me with Wales. The first is how Gatland replaces the injured Will Rowlands, our player of the tournament last time out.
It’s too big a workload for Alun Wyn Jones (circled, right) at his age. The younger players, however talented, aren’t quite ready yet. Maybe a mix and match is the only way forward in the short term, start with Alun Wyn and bring on one of the newcomers early in the second half. But I’m a huge admirer of Rowlands and his are big boots to fill.
The third area of concern for me is the strength of our bench. I saw the other day Sam Warburton, no less a judge, was drooling about Wales’s depth and arguing we’d have our own version of the Bomb Squad. Sadly, I couldn’t disagree more.
South Africa’s Bomb Squad is basically their first-choice front row of Steven Kitshoff, Malcolm Marx and Vincent Koch, who come on in the second half to take advantage of reserve props and hookers their opponents put on the field. The Boks’ starting trio of Ox Nche, Bongi Mbonambi and Trevor Nyakane are also as good as the front row of any other country in the world. So whichever combination they come up with, they are a formidable force.
I’m far from convinced we can be using the likes of Rhys Carre and Leon Brown as part of this conversation, because I believe they’ve each shown weaknesses at scrum time in the past.
The last thing I’d want is to see the spadework done up front for 60 minutes, Wales be hugely competitive, but then to see games drift away because we give away penalties at the set piece.
These are things for Gatland to work on. Let’s hope he finds the solutions.
This, in match order, is how I see Wales’s games going...
Wales v Ireland (Feb 4)
The Irish haven’t been frightened of exposing themselves to playing against the top teams in the world and it’s not for nothing that they enter the tournament as the No.1 ranked side. They’ve won five of their last six Tests, including a 2-1 triumph down under against New Zealand. Indeed, since the autumn of 2021 they’ve beaten the men in black three times.
They have a confident set-piece, a pack full of ball carrying forwards and when the ball does go wide they have the talents to capitalise. Josh van der Flier, Tadhg Beirne and Jonathan Sexton, still orchestrating everything well into his thirties, are their kingpins.
My worry for Wales is that this game has come too soon for Gatland to stamp his own mark on Wales and, home advantage or not, the Irish are too settled as a unit.
The title is theirs to lose, I suspect. Their decisive game will be home to France in Dublin, which I think Ireland will just edge.
I’d love to be proved wrong and see Wales put them on the backfoot from the start, but I don’t see it.
Pricey’s prediction: Ireland by 10 points.
They had a better autumn than us and will have the Murrayfield factor going for them. But by this point Gatland will have had his players together for three weeks, he’ll have learned from the Ireland clash, and I expect Wales to go to Edinburgh and produce a powerful performance.
■ Pricey’s prediction: Wales by a couple of penalties.
Wales v England (Feb 25)
This, for me, will be our defining match of the tournament.
They are in a similar position to Wales, with a new coach appointed so close to the World Cup. Steve Borthwick, like Gatland, will bring new ideas, a fresh voice in the dressing room, which can be a motivating factor, and I expect England to be a more disciplined and consistent force than they were in recent times under Eddie Jones.
In particular I expect we’ll see
Maro Itoje return to the kind of force we’d previously become accustomed to and Marcus Smith to provide the flair to get the best from England’s back line.
England finished third last year, but it wasn’t really a credible third given how far they clearly lagged behind France and Ireland. Like Wales, they have a new defence coach and how quickly Mike Forshaw and Kevin Sinfield get their respective ideas across will have a big bearing on this one.
It’ll likely be nip and tuck for large periods, I just fear their superior bench power will tilt the game their way.
■ Pricey’s prediction: England by five.
Italy v Wales (March 11)
We can’t lose to them again, can we? Last year’s humiliation in Cardiff will surely give Wales extra motivation to ensure it doesn’t happen for a second year in a row.
Italy followed that Principality Stadium shock by then also defeating Australia in Rome. They’re clearly on an upward curve, but that shouldn’t be difficult after losing 30-odd Six Nations games in a row before beating Wales.
The schedule isn’t kind to Italy – they have France and Ireland at home and they won’t be able to target those scalps.
They’ll lose away games to England and Scotland, so Wales in Rome is the big one they’ll go after.
Expect a lot of tries, from each team, but Gatland won’t fail the way Pivac’s side did.
■ Pricey’s prediction: Wales by at least 10, and probably more comfortable than that.
France v Wales (March 18)
They’re building towards their own World Cup and this will be the last competitive game at home for the French before the tournament kicks off in the autumn.
They continue to benefit from the Shaun Edwards factor, defensively and discipline wise, and in Antoine Dupont, Romain Ntamack and Gregory Aldritt possess three of the best players in Europe.
But France have been hit by injuuries and the fact they go to Dublin could work against them when it comes to winning the title.
■ Pricey’s prediction: Wales will find it too tough in Paris and lose by two scores.