MORNING SERIAL
HER toes sink into the silty mud, the released particles turning the water opaque. It’s icy cold, and her toes ache within seconds. They will only have a few minutes to get across before the water temperature slows their joints and drags at their progress in league with the current.
She feels Anton approach, and turns to hand him a carrier bag, tells him to seal his clothes inside. He fumbles and gets the handles tied. She tightens the knot.
“We’ll have to be quick. I’ll go first and feel out the best route. The rocks will be slippery. Can you swim?”
He shakes his head, is either shivering or trembling.
“Okay, so tread carefully. You’ll be fine.” She makes her voice sound confident, uses the tone reserved for tutoring Jack.
She steps into the water, the cold shooting pain through her ankles. The rocks are coated in a soft glaze of algae, slick beneath her soles, but she is practised in loosening her ankles just enough to let her feet slide over their surface and find the safe nook where the rocks butt against each other, wedging the sides of her feet in and stabilising her gait.
She is sure-footed and, as the water rises, leans her knees into the increasing pressure of the current to keep her balance, responding to the changing flow instinctively. Less than a third of the way across the ground falls away steeply and she almost slips, the water level rising suddenly to her hips, soaking up into the fabric of her pants. The cold is violent. She relaxes her bladder, lets the heat of urine mitigate the sting. Raises the pack higher and moves forward, ready to kick out and swim if she needs to, all the time trying not to think of how all this will feel to Anton. She feels the pressure of the water ease just after the halfway point, and the other side is shallower, the air warm on her skin after the chill of the water. There is no breeze, and the drizzle is soft.
She stands and wrings out the water from the hem of her shirt, her senses sharpened, electric after the plunge. Although she is shivering she is energised, and moves around quickly, dumping the bag away from the edge of the water and stamping to shake off the droplets that cling to her leg hair.
> The Half Life of Snails by Philippa Holloway is published by Parthian at £15
CONTINUES ON MONDAY
ations. The whole debate on both sides has largely been about people wanting their own opinions to be confirmed.
“I think it will take a lot longer than three years to make a judgement about Brexit. I don’t think it’s possible to easily disaggregate the impacts of Covid-19, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and Brexit. It may be possible in 20, 30 or 40 years’ time.”
Fay Jones, the Conservative MP for Brecon and Radnorshire, is less hesitant in preaching the merits of Brexit than Mr Harries, even though she voted Remain in the referendum.
She said that despite the recent poll suggesting that in every seat in Wales, more people now think Brexit is a bad thing rather than a good thing – in her constituency by 48% to 36%, with the rest offering no opinion – Ms Jones said she still found much support for leaving the EU.
She also wouldn’t accept that Brexit was damaging the economy, stating: “The UK’s growth in 2016, 2017, 2018 and 2019 exceeded that in the EU and farmers are now beginning to see the benefits of trade deals, with Welsh lamb being sold in the United States.”
Plaid Cymru’s international affairs spokesman Hywel Williams, the MP for Arfon, disagreed with Ms Jones profoundly, stating: “Three years on since leaving the European Union, and the economic harm is beyond doubt. None of the Westminster parties will tell the truth – Brexit is causing untold damage to our economy.
“Data from the Office for Budget Responsibility shows that trade with the EU is down 15% and productivity is expected to be down 4%.
“Nuffield Trust data shows that more than 4,000 European doctors have opted not to work in the NHS following the Brexit vote in 2016.
“Promises made in the referendum campaign turned out to be wildly optimistic at best, plain lies at worst. And people are increasingly aware of that damage.
“A new poll shows that in every single Welsh constituency more people agree with the statement that Britain was wrong to leave the EU than disagree. That is, people now believe Brexit to have been a mistake.
“Who can blame them? Trade with the EU is down 15%, productivity is down 4% and more than 4,000 European doctors have left the NHS since Brexit.
“Numbers sometimes feel abstract. But we’re seeing the impact first hand in north Wales – with the 2 Sisters factory in Ynys Môn directly attributing 730 job losses to problems caused by Brexit. Boosterism does not change economic facts.
“Compare with Northern Ireland, which remains in the single market for goods thanks to the protocol. Its economy is vastly outpacing Brexit Britain.
“It is time for the Conservatives and Labour to acknowledge that being outside the world’s largest trade bloc is making us poorer.
“A pragmatic pro-European economic and trade position is needed now more than ever – and polls suggest the public agree.
“Plaid Cymru believe in honest politics – that’s why we say clearly that rejoining the single market and customs union is undeniably in the interests of our economy in Wales – and across Britain.”
And Welsh Liberal Democrat leader Jane Dodds said: “Three years since Brexit came into effect and almost seven years since the initial vote, not a single one of the promises made by the Leave campaign has materialised.
“Instead, Welsh businesses are struggling, drowning in increased red tape and higher costs and the UK economy is the worst-performing major economy in the world, with lower growth rates than sanction-hit Russia.
“It is clear that we urgently need a closer trading and regulatory arrangement with the EU and the Welsh Liberal Democrats will continue to campaign to rejoin the single market in order to help give our economy the jump-start it needs.
“We cannot afford for the country to be bogged down by ideology over economic common sense.”
Shavanah Taj, general secretary of the Wales TUC, took a wider view, saying: “Brexit shouldn’t be looked at in isolation but in the context of a series of disastrous decisions from the UK Conservative Government.
“It’s not just Brexit that’s got us in this mess – it’s 13 years of austerity, economic mismanagement and the total failure of the so-called levelling-up agenda.
“The last three years have been defined by economic and labour market turmoil – not simply because of Brexit but this has greatly worsened the impact. The promises of trade deals and more money for our public services couldn’t be further from the reality.
“We don’t know the full impact of Brexit yet. We are still benefiting from our final round of structural funds, for example, which has supported tens of thousands of apprenticeships in Wales, among other things. Losing this targeted support for poorer communities will cause huge harm.”
The missing voice so far has been that of UK Labour, which is likely to form a government after the next general election.
Sir Keir Starmer, the party leader, has made it clear that Labour’s manifesto will not commit to seeking a return to the single market.
He has been reluctant to explain why not.
Few UK Labour politicians want to engage about Brexit.
One who is willing to do so is former Cabinet minister Hilary Benn, who wrote a Twitter thread earlier this week which stated: “So on the third anniversary of leaving the EU, how is Brexit going?
“It was hard at first to disentangle the impact on the economy of Covid as opposed to Brexit, but now things are much clearer.
“Leaving the EU has been bad for the economy and bad for trade. British businesses exporting to the EU now face new costs, paperwork and red tape.
“SMEs have been particularly affected. According to HMRC, the total number of UK businesses exporting goods to the EU fell by a truly astonishing 33% between 2020 and 2021.
“In the main these were small businesses that gave up in the face of all the Brexit red tape.
“The UK is forecast by the IMF to be the only G7 country with negative growth this year, and we are the only G7 country that still has a smaller economy than before Covid.
“Bloomberg Economics says that Brexit is costing the UK economy £100bn a year.”
Mr Benn goes on to quote further statistics that put Brexit in a bad light, some which have already been alluded to in this article.
He moves towards the conclusion of his thread by stating: “In the face of all this evidence, it is striking that those who argued that Brexit would benefit us economically now try and pin the blame on something or someone else as they struggle to understand why, inevitably, it’s all gone wrong.”
And then, in his final tweet, he makes a statement that seems to encapsulate UK Labour’s current approach to the issue: “We can’t, however, just reverse what has happened and it would not make sense at the next election to divide the nation once again over Europe. What we must do is to start talking about a new, albeit different, relationship with the EU.”
With estimated losses of £100bn a year, such talk must surely start sooner rather than later.