A Wales win is probably asking too much... but Gatland will at least make sure it’s a close one
WE shall see very shortly how much influence a coach has on a team. Warren Gatland has selected an almost identical side to the one chosen by Wayne Pivac in his final match as Wales coach two months ago.
Gatland may have different defence and attack coaches alongside since he was last in charge, but I fully expect Wales to return to the style of rugby to which we became accustomed throughout his previous tenure.
He set the tone early by saying he had picked his scrum halves on the basis of how accurately they kick.
Not how quickly they get the ball away or on their decision making ability.
He doesn’t want his scrum halves to think, he wants them to kick, kick and kick again.
Although he has now since been ruled out, Leigh Halfpenny’s initial selection at full-back hints at a risk averse and conservative approach that reinforces the narrative that Wales have a decidedly defensive look about them for this opener.
Although he is not involved this weekend, the inclusion of Aaron Wainwright in the squad said everything.
He is a player who thrived under Gatland’s direct and unsubtle pattern of play.
Outside that rigid structure he struggled to find a way to make an impact on the game.
He comes back in because Wales are going back to plan A and he is good at following it.
To some degree Gatland is forced to keep things simple due to the limited preparation time.
He has also picked lots of older players who are very familiar with how he wants the game to be played.
I fully expect Wales to be organised and more consistent than they were.
Wales will be trying to keep the game under control, with the kick chase a vital component in preventing Ireland from establishing any fluency.
Ken Owens and Jac Morgan will burden much of the carrying responsibilities with most carries coming with one pass off nine.
Should Wales get some quick ball in the opposition half it may venture wider than Dan Biggar, but not that often.
The biggest problem for any coach when they face Ireland is how to slow down their speed of ball. Their set-piece is underrated.
Wales have really struggled with scrum and lineout at the start of many campaigns, but they cannot afford to allow the Irish pack to dictate at the restarts because you can never catch up with them.
Ireland have made the flat unit of three forwards with a central ball carrier and an option to pull the ball deep to a support runner a thing of beauty.
They do it so well and with such power and speed that they inevitably end up attacking weak shoulders.
They are so confident in it that they will do it from deep even at the very beginning of matches.
When teams have men back expecting the kick, this scheme becomes even more effective.
Wales must find a way of stifling their rhythm.
I expect that with a rugby league convert as the defence coach that line-speed will be a major part of the strategy.
But they will also need to make things awkward at the breakdown. If they have a chance to jackal they must take it because even if the only thing they do is slow down Jamison Gibson-Park by half a second it will help the defence set up for the next phase.
I expected Wales to be without the ball a fair bit in this game since we are going to kick it and Ireland are partial to keeping it.
So I did think that Tommy Reffell had a good chance of starting. He plays his best rugby without the ball. He is an exceptional nuisance at the tackle area and hugely disruptive to a team’s pattern.
He’s rather quiet in attack and not a great option to bring on from the bench if you’re chasing the game and need a score or two.
I think that Wales will be more competitive with Gatland back in charge but that said it would be astonishing if they were to knock over the number one team in the world.
How do Wales keep this one close? Firstly them must withstand the explosive Irish start.
Ireland begin Test matches with a bang. In the three played against the All Blacks in the summer, Ireland scored a try in the third, fourth and sixth minute of the games. In four of the five games in last year’s Six Nations, they had scored a try within seven minutes.
Wales must be on it from the first whistle.
Secondly, Wales cannot get more than one score behind at any point. Wales are set up for an arm-wrestle and not chasing tries.
It would also enable Ireland to play with more freedom and confidence.
Finally they must find a way of neutralising Johnny Sexton.
Whether he is sitting in the armchair pointing and barking orders at his pack or whether he is at the hub of Ireland’s attacking play as he takes deep passes from the front line and sweeps around with the second line, Wales must find a way of stopping him controlling this game.
The trouble is, even if they do everything above, I’m still not sure they’ll win. But at least it will be close.