Half-century target is within reach after boss bounce factor
Cardiff City have enjoyed a largely positive bounce since Sabri Lamouchi took the reins in the capital.
The Bluebirds were firmly at the heart of the Championship’s relegation dogfight when the Frenchman arrived in South Wales.
But a run of three wins in their last five games has helped City ease some of those concerns and open a six-point gap between themselves and the bottom three.
Defeat to Preston North End at the weekend was a timely reminder that the Bluebirds aren’t quite out of the woods yet, although results elsewhere at the bottom of the table mean their cushion over the bottom three was at least left intact.
There are 10 games until the end of the season, and the Cardiff boss has already outlined what he believes will be enough to preserve their Championship status.
Speaking ahead of the clash with Preston North End, Lamouchi said: “I think four more wins and we’ll be safe. This is not mathematically right. Every season is a little bit different.
“It will be different this season as well because a lot of teams are fighting for points. But four more wins and we will probably be safe.”
Should Cardiff deliver on that ambition, it will take them to 50 points, a tally that’s also in the minds of some of their relegation rivals.
Former boss Neil Warnock outlined a similar points target shortly after taking the job at fellow strugglers Huddersfield Town, who are one of the three sides bidding to drag the Bluebirds back into the thick of things.
“We always say 50 points since three points for a win was introduced and the last few years it’s been 47, 48,” he said when he was appointed Terriers boss.
“I’m never looking at the next few games and trying to set targets. I just want to get as many points as I can as soon as I can.
“They’ve thrown some points away the last few weeks. I watched the Blackpool game and I don’t know how they didn’t win that game but they didn’t.”
So how many points will actually be needed?
Judging by the last 20 seasons, the assessments from Lamouchi and Warnock aren’t far off. Over the last two decades, the average points tally of clubs finishing 21st stands at 48.25 points.
But interestingly, in 12 of those last 20 seasons it’s a tally that would not have been enough to guarantee survival. Indeed, in the 2012-13 season, Barnsley required 55 points which was enough to keep them in the league.
On the flip side, Reading only needed 41 points to stay up last season, although there was the caveat that both relegated Derby County and the Royals were deducted points, which skews the picture a little.
Nothing can be taken for granted, of course, but the 50-point tally outlined by both managers seems a reasonably safe bet given it would have been enough to stay up in 12 of the last 20 seasons.
Points tally of every side finishing 21st in the Championship 2021-22: Reading 41 points; 2020-21: Derby 44; 2019-20: Barnsley 49; 2018-19: Millwall 44; 2017-18: Bolton 43; 2016-17: Nottingham Forest 51; 2015-2016: Rotherham 49; 2014-15: Rotherham 46; 2013-14: Birmingham 44; 2012-13: Barnsley 55; 2011-12: Barnsley 48; 2010-11: Doncaster 48; 2009-10: Crystal Palace 49; 2008-09: Plymouth 51; 2007-08: Coventry 53; 2006-07: Hull 49; 2005-06: QPR 50; 2004-05: Crewe 50; 2003-04: Gillingham 51; 200203: Stoke 50.