UK ‘running hot’ as virus cases rise

HIGH levels of coronavirus infection and rising case rates have led to a warning the UK is “running hot” when it comes to managing the spread of the disease. With infection prevalence in England at around 25 times higher than the same time last year, an expert said the current situation is “an early sense of what living with Covid-19 looks like”.

Dr Simon Clarke, associate professor in cellular microbiology at the University of Reading, said while vaccines are reducing the number of hospital admissions and deaths, high case numbers “still place an unnecessary burden on the NHS”.

The rate of new cases of the virus is rising in all four nations, suggesting the sharp fall in Covid-19 cases that had been under way since mid-July has now come to an end.

Separately, latest estimates from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) infection survey show levels of coronavirus infection remain high across much of the UK.

Prevalence is highest in Northern Ireland, where about one in 55 people are estimated to have had Covid19

last week – unchanged on the previous week and the highest level since late January. This is followed by England with one in 75 people, also unchanged week on week.

The ONS said that while the percentage of people testing positive for coronavirus in England “continued to be high”, estimates suggest “an overall decreasing trend over the past two weeks”.

In Wales, where about one in 220 people are estimated to have had the virus last week, the trend is described by the ONS as “uncertain”. It is broadly unchanged on one in 230 in the previous week.

Scotland was the only area to see a fall, with ONS estimates suggesting about one in 190 people had Covid-19 in the week to August 7, down from one in 120 in the previous week. According to the latest Government data, England recorded 301.6 new cases per 100,000 people in the seven days to August 8, up week on week from 282.3. In Wales the rate is up week on week from 141.6 to 155.7, while Scotthe land’s rate has climbed from 143.7 to 156.1. In Northern Ireland the rate has risen from 440.8 to 475.5 the highest of the four nations.

The virus reproduction number, or R value, in England is between 0.8 and 1, according to the latest figures. Last week the number (the average number of people each Covid-19 positive person goes on to infect) was 0.8 - 1.1. Dr Clarke said: “We are seeing an early sense of what living with Covid-19 looks like. “As restrictions are lifted and the economy rebounds we are ‘running hot’ when it comes to managing Covid spread.

“Wider rollout of the vaccine may reduce infections, but high case numbers still place an unnecessary burden on the NHS.”

Professor James Naismith, director of the Rosalind Franklin Institute, said he expects to see a ‘fourth wave’ after restrictions eased and with the return of schools and people moving indoors after summer, leading to more long Covid-19 and increased pressure on the NHS.

He called for a “more effective (vaccine) campaign to encourage the take-up amongst the hesitant”.