Vallance and Whitty soften us up for new Covid restrictions

SELF-AWARENESS is not something politicians often demonstrate. But yesterday’s briefing from Sir Patrick Vallance and Professor Chris Whitty – the two scientists who have led Britain’s response to the coronavirus pandemic – was a clear illustration that Boris Johnson and his ministers recognise their own shortcomings in giving a clear message to the population on this crisis.

When the PM chaired a press conference a couple of weeks ago, declaring that all gatherings of six or more people would be banned from Monday of last week, the response was – to say the least – tepid. There is powerful evidence to suggest that many people are failing to heed the order made by Mr Johnson, even though he was flanked by the chief scientist and the chief medical officer, Vallance and Whitty respectively, when he set out his demands.

So yesterday the dynamic duo, surely still among the most trusted men in the country, were sent out without any politician in sight to underline, calmly, clearly but ultimately chillingly, the consequences of failing to stick to the rules. If it were a softening-up exercise to prepare the nation for another lockdown in a statement today from the PM, then it stands a very good chance of working.

Sir Patrick and Prof Whitty do not do hyperbole. They don’t need bombast or table thumping to get their points across. Aided by a few graphs and a method of delivery that was sombre but not overly dramatic, they spelled out the likely shape of a second wave of Covid-19 if we don’t start to tighten up our response.

A doubling of the number of cases week by week would see around 50,000 a day by the middle of October. A month later, well into the start of the flu season putting extra pressure on health care generally, average deaths from Covid-19 would be back up to around 200 a day. And the chances of science “riding to our rescue” in the shape of a vaccine or failsafe treatments are low, Prof Whitty warned. This is a six-month problem, at least, he said.

It seems unlikely that, powerful as it was, the message from Messers Vallance and Whitty will prove to be enough. The Prime Minister has surely already come to the conclusion further measures are necessary. He sent out the trusty two yesterday to soften us up for what’s about to come knowing that, with those carefully worded warnings still ringing in our ears – and all over today’s front pages – a more Draconian tightening of normal life will feel more justified.

It is hard not to think that he and the cabinet ministers who will have helped Mr Johnson reach that conclusion are right. There is, clearly, a balance to be struck. But we know more about the disease today than we did back in March and the start of total lockdown. We should be able to take a more targeted approach to imposing restrictions and – providing they are not too complicated to interpret – people ought to be listening today in a way that they were not when Boris Johnson brought in his rule of six.

The fall-out for the economy, for our mental health and society more broadly need to be monitored. But if Vallance and Whitty back new measures, we should definitely listen.