Predictions reveal scale of threat to coastline

AS global leaders discuss tackling climate change at the Cop26 summit in Glasgow, a map shows how rising sea levels around Cornwall could change the shape of its coastline forever.

The map, produced by Climate Central using the latest sea level predictions, shows the land which would be below the annual flood level in 2050.

The projections do not take into coast and river defences, which are designed to hold back the waters to protect homes and businesses, but the map shows how an expected increase in the sea level of up to 29cm over the next 30 years could see unprotected land underwater from flooding.

The map shows how the sea could inundate low-lying coastal areas, and the vital importance of defences to protect homes and businesses.

As a peninsula surrounded by sea, Cornwall is particularly at risk from coastal flooding, and an increase in storms from climate change could also speed up erosion. Changing weather patterns are seeing more rainfall, which increases the flood risk from rivers.

The Government is funding a series of schemes across Cornwall, as part of a new £5.2 billion six-year programme of investment in flood and coastal defences announced in July to protect the most at-risk properties, doubling the amount spent in the previous six years.

It has set out a strategy to reach net zero – the point when the output of greenhouse gases responsible for global warming like carbon dioxide is reduced and equals the measures to take them out of the atmosphere – by 2050.

Around the Cornish coast, the Climate Centre map shows, along the coast and estuaries, the land, including roads and beaches, that would be below the 2050 annual flood level.

The map uses the latest predictions of global future sea levels agreed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the United Nations body for assessing the science related to climate change, which were released in August.

■ Penzance: The seafront route from Newlyn through Penzance to Marazion, including Lidl, Sainsbury’s and Morrisons, is below the flood level, and shows large sections of St Michael’s Mount underwater.

■ Falmouth: The docks area is shown below the flood level.

■ Par: Large swathes of the town would be at risk, including the rail station, and the low-lying land extends up to St Blazey and the A390.

■ Lostwithiel: Land alongside the River Fowey is shown as below the annual flood level.

■ Looe: Areas along both sides of the East Looe River are shown at risk of flooding.

■ Bude: Rivers: Land alongside the River Camel and low-lying parts of Wadebridge would be below the predicted flood level.

■ Hayle: Hayle would see roads and rail links potentially at risk.

■ Perranporth: The map shows lowlying areas behind the beach below the annual flood level.

■ Newquay: Newquay would see some beaches and land alongside the River Gannel at risk.

■ Truro: An earlier version of the map showed a large section of the city centre at risk, but the new data gives a prediction of much less impact in the area.

The Environment Agency says the impact of global warming and climate change is expected to result in the sea level rising by up to 29cm around the UK over the next 30 years, as polar ice melts and seas expand. It warns, if temperatures rise by 2C, the rise would be 45cm by the 2080s, or 78cm if the world heats up by more.

Around 120 world leaders have gathered in Glasgow for the Cop26 summit, with the goal of reducing greenhouse gases to limit global warming to 1.5C, or at worst 2C, by 2100. But there is a warning that we are on track for 2.7C, which the UN says would result in “climate catastrophe”.

UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres told the summit that the world’s “addiction to fossil fuels is pushing humanity to the brink”. Pointing to melting glaciers, relentless extreme weather events, sea level rise and overheating oceans, he warned: “We are digging our own graves”.

Prime Minister Boris Johnson, in his speech to the summit, warned of the dangers of rising temperatures, jeopardising food supplies for hundreds of millions of people, more wildfires and eventually the loss of whole cities such as Miami, Alexandria and Shanghai.

“The longer we fail to act and the worse it gets, the higher the price when we are forced by catastrophe to act,” he said.