The calm before the storm
THE international break provides a good opportunity to take stock ahead of the final eight games of the campaign. Eight games that will decide whether Reading qualify for the playoffs or if they’ll agonisingly drop out of the top six.
The general mood around the fanbase has leaned towards the latter in the last couple of weeks, and for the first time, I’m sadly also beginning to take that view.
The last three games should have provided Reading with the chance to head into the run-in with the pressure off a little and with room to make a few errors in difficult games. Instead, the pressure has increased.
Nottingham Forest, Birmingham City and Queens Park Rangers are all sides we should have been beating. I hate the phrase ‘should be beating’ because no team has a divine right to win a game of football, but given their respective league positions, those were three games a side chasing promotion ought to have been getting maximum points out of. But Reading trailed against all three sides and picked up just two points.
For the first time, finishing in the top six this season is not in our hands, due to Bournemouth being three points behind in seventh with a game in hand and a superior goal difference.
There’s no getting away from it, Reading’s run-in is very tough. Five of our remaining opponents are in the current top eight; that’s the top three of Norwich City, Watford and Swansea City as well as our play-off rivals Barnsley and Cardiff City. That is incredibly daunting. In the words of Tom Holmes, it’s “crunch time”.
It is worth pointing out that Reading picked up an impressive 19 points against their eight remaining opponents in the first half of the season – if they can replicate that then they will hit 81 points and be as safe as houses in the playoff places.
However that would seem fanciful, considering that the majority of those teams – Cardiff and Barnsley being the obvious ones – are in far better shape than when they faced Reading earlier in the campaign, while the Royals have headed in the opposite direction and regressed.
Ultimately I am always left asking myself the same question: would I be happy with finishing just outside of the playoffs?
The rationalist inside me would insist yes, as it would represent significant progress from last season that no one really expected before a ball had been kicked and hopefully provide a foundation to really push for promotion next year.
Yet it would be hard to get away from a nagging feeling that Reading had blown an incredible opportunity.
Having been seven points clear at the top of the table, no matter how early in the season, and inside the top six for almost all of the campaign, to then miss out would be tough to take.
Perhaps that feeling is already creeping in after recent results, and a glance at the remaining fixtures does not help.
I don’t know whether I am looking forward to the final eight games or absolutely dreading the inescapable nerves and tension, but they certainly won’t be dull.
Strap in.