United States the team to beat
The world champions are eyeing a first-ever World Cup/gold medal double
United States expect to end a World Cup winners’ hoodoo in the delayed Tokyo Olympics. Since women’s football was added to the Games programme in 1996, the gold medal has never been won by reigning world champions. This is surprising given the women’s tournament is a fully-fledged international competition, unlike the men’s which is primarily an Under-23s event. Oddly, the US have won four of the six Olympic competitions, but lost on the two occasions they have arrived as World Cup holders: Sydney 2000 and Rio 2016.
Few would bet on a third failure to double up. Despite the 12-month postponement, 13 of the 14 players who featured in the 2019 World Cup final victory were included in the Olympic squad – even Carli Lloyd, who turns 39 five days before the tournament starts. Moreover, unlike many of their rivals the US have maintained a strong schedule. The American team operates much like a club side in normal circumstances and despite the pandemic, as a leading official from competitor noted archly, “continue to behave as if everything is normal”.
From January this year the US played a dozen fixtures prior to heading for Japan. Of the other contenders, Canada
and the Netherlands managed seven, Sweden six, Brazil and Japan five, Australia four and China just two. Great Britain failed to manage even one, having to make do with three friendlies played by an England team that provides the bulk of the GB squad.
It is not just that the US play more games, they also win them. When Sweden held them to a 1-1 draw in Stockholm in April, it ended a run of 16 straight wins featuring 14 clean sheets. The change in management from Jill Ellis to Vlatko Andonovski, the former Kansas City and Reign FC coach, which followed the World Cup triumph, appears to have been seamless. If anything the team is better now than in 2019.
Who can stop them? Not the holders, Germany, who failed to qualify having not been one of the three best European performers at the World Cup. Nor France, the last team to beat the US, in 2019, who also failed to qualify. Canada would love to knock out their neighbours, with memories still burning of their controversial 2012 semi-final defeat to the Americans. If both sides win their groups, they will meet in the last four again. But while Canada are a wellorganised, experienced side with some talented youngsters, they have only beaten their southern border rivals three times – the last of which came in a friendly in 2006.
The Canadians are led by
Any result other than a US win would be a major surprise
Englishwoman Bev Priestman, previously assistant manager to England. The 35-year-old won the role ahead of Rhian Wilkinson, a 2012 bronze
medallist with Canada and assistant coach prior to Priestman’s appointment. Wilkinson subsequently crossed the Atlantic to buff her CV as assistant to England interim coach Hege Riise – and now finds herself working with Riise for Team GB.
Riise, who won gold in 2000 with Norway, selected 15 Englishwomen, plus Scotland’s Caroline Weir and Kim Little, and Sophie Ingle of Wales. More than half her 18 are Manchester City players.
Great Britain open the tournament against Chile in the Sapporo Dome with expectations of an easy win tempered by the South Americans’ impressive goalless draw with an admittedly experimental Germany prior to the Games. Japan, who unsurprisingly have been building to this tournament for several years, make up the group and given home advantage could easily top it, even if crowds are likely to be limited.
Chile are one of three debutants with Zambia and the Netherlands. Zambia unexpectedly topped African qualifying but have barely played since and are ranked 104th in the world. Zaragoza’s Racheal Nachula has Olympic experience – but as a 400m runner in the 2008 Games.
The Dutch are genuine contenders. World Cup runners-up and European champions, they have been in good form and have, in Lieke Martens, the only player at the tournament from Barcelona’s Champions League success. It will be intriguing if they meet GB as Sarina Wiegman, the architect of their recent success, takes over as England coach after the Games – Englishman Mark Parsons, currently at NWSL’s Portland Thorns, will replace her.
Also moving on after Tokyo is New Zealand’s Tom Sermanni. The Scot previously coached group opponents USA and Australia and will need all his experience given the Kiwis go into the competition having not played for more than 500 days. They did manage a training camp in Auckland, but only after overseas-based players spent a fortnight in hotel quarantine.
Australia’s preparations have also been badly disrupted by COVID. The Matildas have not won a match since their final qualifier in Vietnam 15 months ago and shipped five against both Germany and the Netherlands in warm-ups. Their government’s strict quarantine policies mean most players have not been home for more than a year and all their build-up has been overseas. Head coach Tony Gustavsson should know their opponents, being Swedish and part of the US coaching staff from 2014 to 2019, but having only been in charge since September he has his work cut out in his first post as a national head coach.
He is one of three Swedish coaches with Peter Gerhardsson leading their always-competitive homeland and Pia Sundhage coaching Brazil. Her three previous Games as coach produced two gold medals (USA, 2008 and 2012) and one silver (Sweden, 2016). The extraordinary Formiga, who played in the first women’s Olympic football tournament in Atlanta, is in line to appear at her seventh Games. Now 43, she is unlikely to improve on the silver medals Brazil gained in Athens and Beijing, but the 12-team format can produce surprises. Sundhage’s Sweden reached the final in Rio despite only winning their opening match against South Africa. Qualifying from third in the group, they won knockout ties on penalties before succumbing 2-1 to Germany in the final.
In truth any result other than a US win would be a major surprise. High temperatures and humidity could affect a team with an average age above 30, but American players are very fit and used to playing in heat. There is, though, also the spectre of COVID. Most players will be vaccinated but could still be sent into isolation if they come into contact with a confirmed infection. If that happens to half a squad, all bets are off.