Should I stay or should I go?
Perfect conditions are forecast for a trip to Ostend, but the return leg looks a bit lively. Would you go or not?
After arranging to meet some former work colleagues in Belgium for a long weekend, Brian and Pippa are planning to sail the 57 miles from their home port of Ramsgate across to Ostend on the Friday, stay on board for the weekend and arrive back in Ramsgate on Monday evening.
Brian, 52, really enjoys the freedom of sailing, which he took up 10 years ago, and is a qualified Yachtmaster Offshore. His passage planning is assiduous, absolutely by the book. Since he bought his current boat, also his first, three years ago, he’s become a reliable, capable boat handler. Despite, or possibly because of, his qualification, he keeps a close eye on the weather forecasts and prefers to sail cautiously and in fair weather.
The crew is his wife Pippa, 50, also a relatively recent convert to sailing. To share Brian’s interest in sailing, she studied for and passed her Day Skipper a couple of years ago and is competent and able on board. She still knows the theory inside out and takes an active interest in navigation but she’s hardly ever stepped up to skipper.
Their boat is a 10-year-old Bavaria 40 Cruiser, which is maintained professionally by their yard. They love their in-mast furling, appreciate the benefits an autopilot brings to a shorthanded couple offshore and their boat is well equipped, complete with liferaft, AIS, EPIRB and DSC VHF.
Since arranging this cross-Channel meeting, Brian has been mentally assessing the risks: shoals, windfarms, shipping lanes that need to be crossed perpendicularly. The sequence of these risks is such that Brian knows he’s going to get very little rest other than the odd cat-nap. Both Ramsgate and Ostend have all-tide access so at least there are no restrictions in that respect.
The weather
As well as the GRIB forecast app on his smartphone, he’s been monitoring the Met Office synoptic charts and listening to the Shipping Forecast. The forecast for the trip across is pretty reliable by now: there’s a large, slow-moving low with occluded fronts stretching W across the Atlantic, with a SSW F4 gusting F5. The trip back is a different matter. On Sunday, the low is forecast to move E and with a NW F6/7 forecast. Brian downloads GRIB data to look at another forecast model’s output and this agrees. The occluded fronts coming down may bring occasional rain, but in general the NW airflow will have good visibility.
With that forecast and those plans, what would you recommend? Should they stay or should they go?