A cunning plan that could spell doom for rivals

UP UNTIL now, the Prime Minister has been a politician constrained. Left to clean up her predecessor’s mess on Brexit and hemmed in by her tiny majority, Theresa May has been quietly plotting a way out of this political straitjacket. By calling a general election on June 8, she has with one bound, broken free of these constraints and now holds nearly all the aces in comparison with her political opponents.

For a start, May’s Conservatives currently enjoy an opinion poll lead of more than 20 points over that of the Labour Party. Moreover, the Prime Minister boasts leadership approval ratings miles ahead of the embattled Jeremy Corbyn.

Despite promising not to hold an election until 2020, the temptation to smash a disunited Labour Party has proved too great for May to resist. On current projections, Labour could be so routed at the next election that it might even surpass Michael Foot’s miserable showing in 1983.

By promising to deliver on Brexit, the Prime Minister is also hoping to destroy the United Kingdom Independence Party (Ukip), which attracted nearly four million voters at the 2015 General Election. Ukip, in turn, will be trying to win seats in Labour heartlands in the North.

May’s early poll decision also has the potential to spike Nicola Sturgeon’s guns in Scotland. Sturgeon’s call for a second Scottish independence referendum has, up until now, threatened to derail the Government’s Brexit strategy. The Prime Minister has gambled that the SNP has peaked north of the border and that the Scottish Conservatives, under the energising leadership of Ruth Davidson, are capable of winning a handful of seats in the North East of Scotland, Edinburgh and the Borders. Such a result might take the sting out of demands for independence.

The only major British political party which may gain out of May’s move is the Liberal Democrats. Their great hope is that by identifying as the natural home for ‘Remain’ voters, they can improve on the disastrous eight seats which they won at the last election. However, while such a distinctive strategy might win votes, thanks to the cruel, ‘winner-takes-all’ nature of the first-past-the-post electoral system, it may win few seats.

However, there are two more hidden motivations behind May’s decision to call an early election, both of which are ultimately more revealing of the challenges which she faces and which provide a unique insight into how the Prime Minister operates.

Firstly, the police have been investigating alleged overspending by Conservative candidates at the last general election in several highly marginal seats. Faced with the potential prospect of having to fight these by-elections, which might have eaten away at her Government’s fragile majority, May has brushed aside this difficulty by going to the country straight away.

Secondly, the Prime Minister was mindful of the 140 Eurosceptics on her own backbenches, who were pressing her to deliver a so-called ‘hard’ Brexit. Theresa May knows that, short of no deal at all, she will never satisfy her hard-line MPs. However, by calling an early general election, and by winning what she hopes will be a personal mandate from the British people, May hopes to carry enough political authority to be able to strike a pragmatic deal with our continental partners.

This episode has also revealed the Prime Minister’s love of careful planning in secret. Her method of operating is to consult widely, taking time to mull over decisions, and then to pounce, catching her political opponents off guard. Having adopted this technique during her extended spell at the Home Office, she ruthlessly and unexpectedly dispatched nearly all of David Cameron’s allies on becoming Prime Minister last June. It remains to be seen, however, whether May will enjoy the same luxury of time during the likely pell-mell of the Brexit negotiations.

So what happens now? Today, there will be a long debate and then vote in the House of Commons on a Government motion calling for an early general election. Under the Fixed Term Parliament Act of 2011, this vote will require a two-thirds majority. If such a margin of victory cannot be obtained, then a motion of no confidence will then have to be called, which May would have to lose deliberately.

However, given that Jeremy Corbyn has already indicated that he supports an early election, it won’t come to that. To have turned down the chance to take on the Prime Minister would have appeared cowardly. Conservative volunteers would have followed Corbyn around dressed as chickens.

The Labour leader is no chicken, but he does lead a party of hapless red hens. The sly Conservative fox is about to be let loose in the Labour hen house. While it is for the voters to decide which way this story ends, for now it seems as if Theresa May’s cunning is going to wreak havoc.