Macron’s real challenges all lie ahead

THERE WERE scenes of joy in parts of Paris as news of Emmanuel Macron’s presidential election victory emerged.

The new centrist President-elect took victory by a significant margin. Gaining over 65 per cent of the votes cast, against less than 35 per cent for his far right Front National opponent Marine le Pen, he will formally become the next French President next weekend.

As he prepares to take office, though, the apparent ease of his victory masks a range of challenges facing France.

Politically, the French electorate has clearly rejected established political parties and candidates. Macron is not a complete political outsider, having served as Minster of the Economy and Industry in the administration of François Hollande from 2014-16 (a post he only resigned in August 2016).

But his political experience and base are limited: he has positioned himself as an independent, his political movement

is still in its infancy, he lacks a party base in the French parliament and detail on his policies has been sparse.

It is true that some notable figures across the political spectrum backed him for the second round of the election – but calling for a vote against Marine Le Pen and the Front National falls a long way short of positive support. With parliamentary elections to follow next month, it is not yet clear whether Macron will translate his presidential win into a sufficient platform to govern.

Economically, the challenges facing Macron are considerable. Economic growth in France had reached 1.1 per cent in 2016 (it has fallen back so far in 2017), against a European average of 1.8 per cent. Unemployment has been stubbornly high under Hollande: overall, the unemployment rate is over 10 per cent, whereas for immigrant workers it was around 20 per cent last year and nearer 25 per cent.

EU countries currently outperform France, in some cases by a considerable margin, on every unemployment measure. Macron has promised a lower deficit, lower taxes, more investment, less public spending, reduced public sector employment, economic modernisation, and a reduction in unemployment to seven per cent.

Socially, divisions in French society have become more apparent, not less, over the course of this election campaign. Unemployment is an obvious concern. So, too, is immigration. However, the latter is less clear cut than it first appears. While it is a central preoccupation of traditional Front National supporters, polls show that immigration ranks less highly than unemployment, security and trust in politicians among voters’ concerns (hardly surprising given the ongoing scandal of right-wing former candidate François Fillon’s employment of family members on generous terms for work which might not have been done).

At the same time, though, a 2016 survey showed that almost 30 per cent of French adults viewed Muslims ‘unfavourably’. In this context, Macron’s pledges to uphold the traditional policy of secularism in public life, to integrate non-French citizens more effectively into French society and to play France’s full part in accepting greater numbers of refugees from conflict zones all suggest a need to tread carefully in managing the different priorities of a sizeable minority of French voters.

Finally, security is a major concern. During Hollande’s presidency France has experienced over 20 attacks, including the Champs-Elysées shooting just before the first round of the presidential election. A majority of this number are believed to have Islamist connections.

Many have been carried out by radicalised French citizens, constituting a significant (and as yet unmet) ‘homegrown’ threat.

To this end, Macron’s more open approach to immigration, his insistence on adherence to ‘French values’ indicates a difficult balancing act.

Finally, what of the millions of voters of the French electorate who actively voted against Macron on Sunday, the 12 per cent who cast a spoiled or blank ballot, and the one in four who didn’t vote at all? What this election in France might indicate above all is disillusionment with the existing political order, dissatisfaction with political elites, and the perception of their disconnection from the concerns of ordinary voters. To the extent that Macron will have a steep uphill struggle in meeting these concerns across a range of issues, it is possible that disillusionment will only increase over his time in office.

There was jubilation in Paris on Sunday. Activists from Macron’s movement were understandably delighted with their success. But celebrations could be shortlived. There is much work for Macron to do to repair the many political, economic and social fractures in France.