Young to inherit a North ‘hit hardest by Brexit’

Region rich in assets but poor in opportunity claim

BREXIT WILL have nearly twice the impact on the North’s economy by 2030 as it will on London’s, according to a report published today which urges the Government to “devolve real economic power” to the region.

Leading think-tank IPPR North has called for a new generation of leaders to unlock the potential of the North more effectively than their predecessors and turn it into a “leading federal state in a world-leading federal nation”. It comes as political leaders in Yorkshire try to reach an agreement on a devolution deal after months of deadlock.

Setting out its vision for how the region could look in 13 years, it says millennials, aged 22 to 37, and ‘Generation Z’, aged 21 and younger, will form the overwhelming majority of the workforce, but will “inherit a North rich in assets but poor in opportunity”.

It said: “They will have to tackle unprecedented environmental, social and economic disruption, all the while caring for an ageing population who are set to live longer, but in poorer health and at high cost.”

The annual ‘State of the North’ report predicts that Brexit will have nearly twice the impact on the North’s gross domestic product as London’s, partly because it is more dependent on trade with the EU.

It also warns that the North will need 2.7 million more working-age people to support its ageing population, and that 40 per cent of all northern jobs are in occupations at high risk of being taken by robots or other types of automation.

Report author Luke Raikes, a Senior Research Fellow at IPPR North, said: “In just over a decade the North’s millennials will make up the majority of the region’s electorate and more than twothirds of the working-age population.

“They already clipped Theresa May’s wings in this year’s General Election and will have no qualms

in condemning the Government’s watered-down plans for the North or the country.

“They will inherit a number of huge challenges from the older generations. Climate change is likely to have severe effects, robots and automation could threaten their job opportunities, and they will have to pay for the care of older people who live much longer than ever before.

“They didn’t cause these problems but they will have to find the solutions.

“The North has some of the assets they need to do this, but they have been wasted and run down by central government over the last century. In this century the North’s millennials will take charge”.

Councillors in Doncaster and Barnsley are set to decide today whether to hold a community poll for residents to vote on the future of devolution in South Yorkshire. If the plans announced last week are approved, voters would be asked to choose between the government-backed Sheffield City Region deal or a proposed Yorkshire-wide deal.

ON THE day that Barnsley and Doncaster Councils meet to ratify plans to let local residents have their say on devolution, and the strength of support for the countywide One Yorkshire blueprint, through a community poll – a referendum in all bar name – the issue’s importance is reiterated by today’s State of the North 2017 report which makes sobering reading.

In short, the IPPR North think-tank concludes that not only will the region be left behind unless the Government devolves “real economic power”, but the so-called Millennials and Generation Z will move away to further their career ambitions unless there’s a step change in industrial policy so businesses can withstand the twin threats of Brexit and automation.

If this wake-up call does not spur national, regional and local leaders into action, Yorkshire will be even less well-placed to challenge those ministers like Transport Secretary Chris Grayling who still need to be persuaded that future economic growth here depends on the level of actual investment in the road and rail infrastructure.

Today’s findings are stark. The North will need 2.7m more working-age people to support its ageing population by 2030. As such, the region needs to be doing more to encourage dynamic and cutting-edge tech companies to relocate here in greater numbers – they are the future – and this area needs to take greater ownership of this challenge.

Furthermore, the pace of technological advances means more jobs and functions will become automated, placing an even greater onus on the need to create skilled jobs in sufficient numbers to support a growing population. Innovation strategies now need to be turbo-charged; further reason why the dithering over devolution is now counter-productive.

And Brexit, it is concluded, will have nearly twice the impact on the North’s GDP as it will on London’s. The IPPR North is not alone. Sally Jones, director of international trade policy at Deloitte, tells The Yorkshire Post that she cannot foresee a trade deal with the European Union being secured for several years, and that interim measures will have to be agreed prior to the UK leaving the EU in 2019.

If the North is to finally fulfil its potential, rather than being a drag on the economy, it needs to heed two of the more profound points made in the Commons debate that Mr Grayling snubbed. The first was made by Hull North MP Diana Johnson who said: “It takes longer to travel from Liverpool to Hull than it does from London to Paris, and that is without the frequent delays.” That’s unacceptable. Then Richmond MP Rishi Sunak warned: “The Northern Powerhouse is a wonderful phrase, but the people of northern England deserve more than a slogan; they need action.”

Coming from a Tory MP who is highly-regarded by his party, it makes the devolution of real powers – and investment – to Yorkshire and the North all the more urgent and necessary.