Storms in North ‘may be more frequent’
MUCH OF northern Britain is likely to see wetter winters and much drier summers in coming decades if climate change goes unchecked, research shows.
And rainfall is likely to become more extreme in both summer and winter, with heavy storms projected to become more frequent by the end of the 21st century, the study found.
The Met Office used high-resolution modelling of rainfall over 1.5km squares – the same scale as is used for weather forecasts – to examine the changes in rainfall in Scotland and northern England to the end of the century.
The research looked at what could happen if the world continued to pump out rising levels of high greenhouse gases. It found that daily average winter rainfall was likely to increase by 10 per cent to 35 per cent in parts of the Scottish Central Lowlands.
In the summer, daily average rainfall is projected to fall across northern Britain, with many areas including the central belt of Scotland experiencing reductions of 25 per cent to 50 per cent.
Steven Chan, a visiting scientist with the Met Office Hadley Centre, said: “Developing an improved understanding of rainfall patterns until the end of the century is vital as it allows governments to plan for potential impacts of drought or flooding events.”
The study, published in the journal uses only one model so is not able to assess how likely the results might be, but does provide an initial look at the types of changes to rainfall patterns northern Britain could see with gas emissions, the Met Office said.