‘Tax must rise to meet NHS bill for elderly’

TAX MAY need to rise to historically high levels in order to give the NHS the money it needs to cope with an ageing population, a new report suggests.

A new analysis on what the NHS needs to cope with future demand shows that UK spending on healthcare will have to rise by an average 3.3 per cent a year over the next 15 years just to maintain NHS provision at current levels.

But in order to get the health service back on track with currently missed targets, to modernise and meet the needs of an ageing population, funding increases of four per cent a year would be required over the next 15 years, according to a report by the Health Foundation and the Institute for Fiscal Studies, in association with the NHS Confederation.

The authors conclude that in the past, Britain has effectively paid for increased government spending on health by cutting spending in other areas.

But there is no more room to make cuts in other areas, such as defence or housing, the authors said.

“The implication is clear: In the medium term, if we want even to maintain health and social care provision at current levels, taxes will have to rise,” the authors wrote.

The document states that relying solely on taxation to pay for a “modernised NHS” would increase the UK tax burden as a share of GDP to “historically high levels”.

Funding these projected increases in health spending through the tax system would require taxes to rise by the equivalent of between £1,200 and

£2,000 per household. The analysis found that by 2033/34, there will be 4.4 million more people in the UK aged 65 and over. Meanwhile, the number of people with complex long-term conditions is also set to soar.

The analysis comes as the Government mulls over its long-term plan for the NHS.

Paul Johnson, director of IFS and an author of the report, said: “We are finally coming face to face with one of the biggest choices in a generation.

“If we are to have a health and social care system which meets our needs and aspirations, we will have to pay a lot more for it over the next 15 years. This time we won’t be able to rely on cutting spending elsewhere – we will have to pay more in tax.”

Meanwhile, campaigners yesterday told a High Court judge that “radical and significant” plans for the NHS could allow private firms to make decisions about healthcare.

The JR4NHS group is bringing a legal action against Health Secretary Jeremy Hunt over the planned introduction of accountable care organisations, which they say “could easily be” for-profit companies.

JR4NHS was founded by three doctors and a university professor, and was supported by Professor Stephen Hawking until his death in March.

The hearing is due to last two days and a reserve judgment will be issued.