Analysis

IT’S FINALLY judgment day for Theresa May’s much-maligned Brexit deal. Despite a few lastminute declarations of support, all the talk in the corridors of power is not on whether she will lose it but by how much, with current predictions stretching to over 200. So, with almost certain defeat on the horizon, what happens next?

The first major headache will probably be caused by the Labour party, who are expected to table a vote of no confidence in her government which could kick in the very next day. Although, true to form, they appear to be dithering on when to do it.

As ever, Mrs May won’t have much time to lick her wounds, as a recent rule change means she will only have until the following Monday to come back with a plan B. In the interim she is expected to head back to Brussels to essentially beg for some game-changing concessions. But, given that they have repeatedly dug in their heels, she’s likely to get warm words and not much else.

Back on home soil the PM will probably have another crack at wooing wavering Labour MPs. If they are freshly bruised from a failed no-confidence vote, they may feel, as the Labour leader indicated over the weekend, that a deal will save them from further internal turmoil over whether to back a second referendum.

Meanwhile, in the Commons the power struggle between the Government and MPs will ramp up as various factions finalise their plans to take back control of Brexit. Over the weekend we heard rumours of a plot masterminded by Tory rebels to take over parliamentary business, and as the week began it emerged that the powerful liaison committee was working on its own Brexit plan B. There will also be indicative votes in the House as MPs try make their voices heard. But don’t be surprised if there’s no strong majority for anything and the Government is left none the wiser. What is certain is that tempers will fray as a no-deal Brexit looms and as the tension mounts we could see Cabinet resignations and more calls for May to step aside. Going back to the polls might be the last roll of the dice for a desperate Downing Street.