Covid’s challenge

When to lift the lockdown...

IF THE Government’s position was an invidious one when it first consented to the Covid-19 lockdown, it is even more so now as the Cabinet debates a gradual lifting of restrictions.

The Bank of England’s economic forecast ahead of VE Day commemorations was a foreboding one which confirmed the worst fears of many – GDP could fall by 30 per cent in the sharpest slump for over 300 years, and lead to a steep rise in unemployment, before beginning to recover.

And while calls for the lockdown to be lifted are understandable, and particularly from those businesses owners whose firms are fighting for survival, the disaster would be event greater without the pioneering ‘furlough’ scheme devised by Chancellor Rishi Sunak.

This state subsidy of salaries has effectively bought the Government time, albeit at considerable cost, and it would be prudent of Boris Johnson to take a cautious approach when he sets out his plans on Sunday night.

First and foremost, this is still a humanitarian tragedy – one which has seen over 30,000 UK residents die before their time – and nothing must come in the way of the national effort to treat victims and suppress the spread of the disease. On this, the Government still has much to prove – its response and record, thus far, is mixed at best.

But any haste to reopen offices and shops comes with a huge risk; namely a second ‘spike’ in cases which could inflict even more damage on the economy. It is why the Government’s task should be to plan for the lifting of restrictions – but only when the scientific evidence says it is advisable and when mass testing is in place.