Fears that 190,000 Africans could die from virus

NEARLY A quarter of a billion people in Africa will catch coronavirus and up to 190,000 could die, new research suggests.

A study by scientists at the World Health Organisation suggests that the spread of Covid-19 on the continent will be slower than in other regions, but could last for several years.

According to the model, published in BMJ Global Health, around one in four of the one billion people in the organisation’s Africa Region could be infected in the first 12 months of the virus spreading.

Of these, up to 5.5 million would require hospital treatment and 150,000 will die, the scientists estimate – although they say the death toll could reach 190,000.

The dramatic increase in the number of hospital admissions could put pressure on other services such as treatments for HIV, tuberculosis and malaria, the researchers say.

The World Health Organisation Africa region includes 47 countries, but excludes Djibouti, Egypt, Libya, Morocco, Somalia, Sudan and Tunisia. As of April 29, 45 countries had reported cases of the coronavirus infection, according to the organisation. Mauritius, Seychelles and Equatorial Guinea would likely have the highest proportions of people infected, the calculations suggest.

Among large countries in the region, Cameroon, South Africa, and Algeria would be most at risk, while Nigeria is set to have the largest number of infections overall, followed by Algeria and South Africa.

The researchers say: “Countries of the WHO African Region need to expand capacity of, particularly, their primary hospitals to mitigate implications of widespread community spread of Sars-CoV-2, and that includes basic emergency care needs.”