New wave of Covid ‘could be deadlier than first’
120,000 might be killed in second peak, warns report
A SECOND wave of coronavirus infections this winter could be more serious than the first outbreak with 120,000 hospital deaths in a “reasonable worstcase scenario”, scientists advising the Government have warned.
A new report from the Academy of Medical Sciences, commissioned by the Government’s chief scientific adviser Sir Patrick Vallance, has stressed action must be taken now to mitigate the potential for a second peak of Covid-19.
Scientists have argued that hospitals could potentially see 120,000 Covid-19 deaths in between September and next June at the same time as battling a surge in demand due to usual winter pressures, including flu.
The report, from 37 academics, acknowledges there is a high degree of uncertainty about how the Covid-19 epidemic will evolve in the UK over the coming months, but sets out a “reasonable worstcase scenario” that would see the R, or reproductive, rate rise to 1.7 from September.
The R refers to the number of people an infected person can be expected to pass the virus on to.
It comes as 11 deaths were reported yesterday of people who had tested positive for coronavirus, bringing the UK total to 44,830. In Yorkshire, 2,865 people have now died, with two deaths recorded yesterday.
The academic modelling suggests there could be a peak in hospital admissions and deaths in January and February, similar to or worse than the first wave. It does not include deaths in the community or care homes.
Professor Stephen Holgate, a Medical Research Council clinical professor of immunopharmacology who led the study, said: “This is not a prediction, but it is a possibility. The modelling suggests that deaths could be higher with a new wave of Covid-19 this winter, but the risk of this happening could be reduced if we take action immediately. With relatively low numbers of Covid-19 cases at the moment, this is a critical window of opportunity to help us prepare for the worst that winter can throw at us.”
The figures do not take account of government intervention to reduce the transmission rate, or the use of the drug dexamethasone in intensive care units, which has been shown to cut deaths.
Prof Holgate said action was needed before winter sets in included flu vaccination for the vulnerable and health and social care workers. He added NHS Test and Trace must be “upscaled”.
The team also looked at less serious scenarios, with an R rate of 1.1 leading to 1,300 hospital deaths from September to June. They also modelled an R of 1.5, which would lead to 74,800 hospital deaths. Dame Anne Johnson, professor of infectious disease epidemiology at University College London and vice president of the Academy of Medical Sciences, said there was a need for a “powerful public information campaign” in the run-up to winter.