Second virus lockdown ‘would cut county’s economy by £12bn’

A SECOND coronavirus lockdown would see the West Yorkshire economy shrink by £12bn this year, with employment levels not recovering until 2027, the county’s political leaders have warned.

West Yorkshire Combined Authority has drawn up plans for how it can speed up its recovery from the pandemic with investment in health tech, digital, entrepreneurs and the transition to a net-zero-carbon economy.

But its proposal to be submitted to Ministers includes a stark warning about the impact the lockdown is likely to have on the economy of West Yorkshire and its 2.3 million population.

Global information services company Experian estimates that if the local economy returns to pre-crisis levels by the end of the September, West Yorkshire’s economy would contract by 10 per cent or £5.3bn over 2020.

But in the worst case scenario of a double-dip recession and a second lockdown this winter, more than £12bn would be wiped off the county’s gross value added

Susan Hinchcliffe, chair of the West Yorkshire Combined Authority. (GVA) representing the value of its economy in the same period.

In this event, average unemployment rates locally would peak at 10 per cent and joblessness would not return to pre-crisis levels until 2027 at the earliest. While the best-case scenario would see 30,000 jobs potentially lost in 2020, a second lockdown could result in 58,000 jobs.

This weekend, Prime Minister Boris Johnson said he does not want to impose a second national lockdown in the event of another Covid-19 outbreak.

The PM compared the option of a nationwide shutdown to a “nuclear deterrent”, adding he does not think the country “will be in that position again”.

But the UK’s chief scientific adviser Sir Patrick Vallance said there is “a risk” such measures could be needed as winter approaches.

West Yorkshire Combined Authority’s draft economic recovery plan, to be discussed by leaders next week, sets out how the county can make a contribution to the national recovery and deliver the Government’s levellingup agenda.

In total the authority is asking for investment worth £1.1bn, including £108m for a digital infrastructure fund to pay for projects including the expansion of superfast broadband.

Other ‘‘asks’’ include £38m to deliver an ‘‘entrepreneurial revolution’’, supporting a doubling of annual start-up businesses to 20,000, and £35m for a scheme to boost research and development.

There is an emphasis on moving to a net-carbon-zero economy, with a request for £192m to build on West Yorkshire’s strengths in clean growth as well as tackling the climate emergency.

Susan Hinchcliffe, chair of the West Yorkshire Combined Authority and leader of Bradford Council, said: “These draft plans are about creating a better, more equal economy for the future and a cleaner, sustainable environment, with better jobs, higher skills and the right infrastructure for our communities.”

These plans are about creating a better, more equal economy.