Improved testing ‘is needed for reopening of schools’
THE NHS Test and Trace programme needs to be scaled up in order to reopen schools safely, researchers have warned.
A new modelling study has implied that reopening schools in September must be combined with a high-coverage test-traceisolate strategy to avoid a second wave of Covid-19 later this year.
The study comes as Australian research found there were “low” levels of coronavirus transmission in schools and nurseries.
The modelling study – which simulates various scenarios – examined the possible implications of schools reopening in the UK coupled with broader reopening of society, such as more parents returning to the workplace and increased socialising within the community.
The authors found that “with increased levels of testing... and effective contact tracing and isolation, an epidemic rebound might be prevented”.
But in a worst-case scenario, a second wave could be 2.3 times higher than the first, according to the study published in The Lancet Child And Adolescent Health.
It comes after one scientist suggested that pubs may need to shut to allow schools to reopen.
Asked if the Prime Minister agreed with the comments made by Professor Graham Medley, a member of SAGE, his official spokesman said: “Our approach is a localised one where you would assess the situation on the ground and take whatever steps were required to slow the spread of the virus. More broadly we are committed to supporting the hospitality industry which has had a very tough time.”
It comes as a further three deaths were reported in those who had previously tested positive for coronavirus in Yorkshire yesterday, bringing the region’s total to at least 2,899.
Nationally, a further nine deaths were recorded, bringing the total to 46,210.
Researchers from UCL and the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine (LSHTM) simulated what would happen in an “optimistic” scenario assuming 68 per cent of contacts of people who tested positive could be traced.
In the more pessimistic scenario the system had 40 per cent coverage.
But one of the authors, Chris Bonell, professor of public health sociology at LSHTM, said the current testing system has “about 50 per cent coverage”.
He said: “Reopening schools fully in September, alongside reopening workplaces in society, without an effective test, trace, isolating (TTI) strategy could result in a second wave of infections between two and 2.3 times the size of the original wave.”
Dr Jasmina Panovska-Griffiths, senior research fellow and lecturer in mathematical modelling, at the Institute of Epidemiology and Health Care, UCL, added: “Our result show that reopening schools fully in September will not lead to a second wave if accompanied by a comprehensive test, trace and isolate strategy.”