December lockdown ‘ may save thousands of lives’

A TWO- WEEK ‘‘ circuit- breaker’’ lockdown in December could save thousands of lives and allow the UK breathing space to control the Covid- 19 epidemic, Government advisers say.

Graham Medley, professor of infectious disease modelling at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine and a member of the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies ( Sage), said it may be too late to implement a two- week circuit- breaker over the October half- term but December could be an option.

He and Matt Keeling, who advises the Government and is a professor of maths at the University of Warwick, told the PA news agency that a short, sharp lockdown would enable Test and Trace to improve as well as ensuring NHS hospitals do not become overwhelmed with coronavirus patients.

Speaking in a personal capacity, Prof Medley said there was “mixed evidence” that the current three- tier system would work. “The alternative way of doing it is to say well, we’re going to have to go into severe measures at some point, so why don’t we do it before we absolutely have to? Why don’t we do it for two weeks or three weeks, before we absolutely have to, and then that means that we avoid an emergency break?

“There are two advantages of that – one is for sure which is that it reduces the load on the NHS. And the other one potentially is... a known break, a known lockdown, is better than an unknown lockdown.”

Prof Medley and colleagues say that deaths could possibly reduce for the rest of the year from about 19,900 to 12,100. A limited lockdown, with schools and shops open but hospitality venues closed, could potentially cut deaths to about 15,600,.