New cases ‘ double in fortnight, but growth is slowing’
THE NUMBER of new daily coronavirus cases across England has doubled in a fortnight but the rate of growth may be slowing down, data suggests.
Figures from the Office for National Statistics ( ONS) infection survey estimates there was an average of 35,200 new cases per day of Covid- 19 in the community in England between October 10 and 16.
This is up 26 per cent from an estimated 27,900 new cases per day for the period from October 2 to 8 and just more than double the 17,200 new cases per day from September 25 to October 1.
The ONS said the rate of new infections “has continued to increase” in recent weeks though experts suggested the growth may have slowed down.
The data does not include people staying in hospitals, care homes or other institutional settings. According to the ONS, an estimated 433,300 people in England had coronavirus during the most recent week, equating to around one in 130 people.
It said: “There has been growth in Covid- 19 infection rates in all age groups over the past two weeks including those aged over 70, with the current rates highest in older teenagers and young adults.
“The highest Covid- 19 infection rates continue to be seen in the North West, Yorkshire and the Humber, and the North East.”
Professor James Naismith, from the University of Oxford, said the most recent figures – looking at the increase from 27,900 to 35,200 cases per day – suggest the rate of growth of the epidemic may be slowing down.
He said: “Comparing the average number of infections per day measured by ONS for the week ending October 9 and the week ending October 16 suggests that the doubling time might have increased to three weeks. If so, and I emphasise there are uncertainties, this is a hopeful sign that the rate of increase is slowing down.”
He said the figures were “hopeful” but added that it was “too early to draw firm conclusions”.
He added: “Feeding these numbers back in to yesterday’s track and trace numbers reveals the scale of the challenge facing the current PCR- based test, track and trace system.”