WILL WE BE WINNERS IN THE US ELECTION?
IS DONALD Trump about to be swept from office by angry American voters appalled that their country has suffered the world’s worst Covid- 19 death toll on his watch?
Or are the record numbers who have already cast their votes in the US Presidential election giving this most polarising of leaders their resounding backing for a second term?
Whichever way Tuesday’s ballot goes, the reverberations of what is predicted to be the biggest voter turnout in America in more than a century are going to be felt by us all, distant though we are from the key states which will determine who occupies the White House.
They will ripple through Yorkshire’s farms and factories, our offices and homes, with enough force to make or break livelihoods. That is because postBrexit Britain’s trade deals with either Donald Trump or Joe Biden will have a direct impact on our region.
They may provide new impetus and markets for our manufacturers, or opportunities for the burgeoning number of green and high- tech firms.
Or they may open the borders to cheaply- produced meat stuffed with growth hormones banned here that undercuts our farmers who produce good, honest food, making their lives even harder than they already are.
So much hope has been invested by the Government in trade with America for a future outside the EU that the outcome of this Presidential election matters more to Britain than any since the end of the Second World War.
There has always been a sense of excitement and anticipation in Britain at seeing the American people decide the person who effectively becomes the leader of the free world – and our most important friend. So it is again. But this time it is also underscored by a touch of trepidation because how good a friend to Britain either man would be is open to question.
Donald Trump, for all his warm words about Britain, hasn’t done us any favours in the last four years, which doesn’t bode well for the future. And Joe Biden’s only utterances about Britain during the campaign point towards a potentially spiky relationship with the Government, especially if it breaks the agreement with the EU over the border with Ireland.
Mr Biden makes much of his Irish Catholic heritage, and his team has been explicit any border changes that undermine peace in Northern Ireland will mean trade deals between Britain and US are off. There’s also a potentially awkward history between Boris Johnson and the Biden camp, which has been cited by the presidential hopeful’s aides.
During the Brexit referendum campaign, when Barack Obama hinted heavily that he believed Britain was better off remaining inside the EU, Mr Johnson accused him of “an ancestral dislike of the British Empire” because of his Kenyan heritage. That was a crass thing to say, and not likely to endear the Prime Minister to a president whose political history is so closely entwined with Mr Obama’s.
For all the talk of the special relationship between our two countries, the warm friendship lauded at state banquets and commemorations of wartime anniversaries, Brexit has fundamentally altered the way it works. Every Prime Minister since the end of the war has acknowledged that the key component of the special relationship has been Britain’s role as a bridge between America and Europe.
That’s a part much harder to play once outside the EU.
Mr Biden could prove problematical in that respect. He’s an enthusiast for the EU, who might well take the view that America’s relationship with Europe is better served by talking to Angela Merkel or Emmanuel Macron rather than the occupant of 10 Downing Street. What of the personal chemistry between Prime Minister and President? Not much chance of the sort of chumminess that Tony Blair and George W Bush enjoyed, whoever wins.
Mr Trump has praised Mr Johnson, but it’s a mixed blessing to have him as a friend given how heartily detested he is by a substantial section of the public both in America and around the world.
And Mr Biden doesn’t look like the sort of man susceptible to Mr Johnson’s brand of bumptious charm, because he’s been in the political game so long – perhaps too long. At 77, he would be the oldest first- term president in US history, and he isn’t wearing his years lightly. Earlier this week, in a television interview, he forgot Mr Trump’s name, which, added to his general air of frailty, must raise questions about his ability to shoulder the burden of what is arguably the world’s most demanding job.
Mr Trump, at 74, isn’t too far behind him though, prompting the unsettling thought that whoever Americans elect, the next President will be a man considerably past his prime.
If the opinion polls are correct, it is Mr Biden who is headed for victory – and it’s hard to see a trade deal with Britain being anywhere near the top of the in- tray awaiting him in the Oval Office. There’s the tragically mishandled mess of Covid- 19 to deal with, for a start.
Then there are the American cities in flames over Black Lives Matter protests. Russian cyber attacks. China flexing its muscles over both trade and territory. The Middle East. And then there’s the possibility of Mr Trump causing a constitutional crisis by refusing to leave office if he loses, claiming as he already has that postal voting is rigged against him.
It should defy belief that a serving US president would cast doubt on the electoral system that put him into office, but outrageous behaviour has become the norm with Mr Trump.
Little wonder that this is a US Presidential election that has gripped the world’s attention even more than usual, and has countless people rooting for Donald Trump’s defeat as fervently as if he were a politician in their own country. We’ll start feeling the reverberations of what happens all too soon. Let’s hope they don’t give us a nasty shock.
Read Andrew Vine every Tuesday.