Betting lines are moving targets
COVID-19 keeping those wagering on games on their toes
Trevor Konitzer is the kind of guy whose cellphone is constantly buzzing with updates on NFL players: who’s hurt, who’s playing, what breaking news affects one team or another.
He saw a betting line on last week’s Saints-broncos game open at New Orleans giving up 61⁄ points.
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And then 2020 struck — again — in a way that’s been creating havoc with the NFL’S schedules, rosters and, most importantly to some, betting lines.
A coronavirus outbreak involving the Denver Broncos saw three of the team’s quarterbacks deemed high-risk close contacts for having been mask-less around QB Jeff Driskel before he tested positive, making them ineligible to play in the game against the Saints.
“It went up to 101⁄ 2, and as soon as I got that alert on my phone, I said, ‘OK, it’s time,’ ” Konitzer said.
He quickly placed a bet on New Orleans, knowing that a wide receiver recently elevated from Denver’s practice squad was to start at quarterback.
It was some of the easiest money he ever made. Kendall Hinton completed 1 of 9 passes for 13 yards, and the Broncos lost 31-3.
It came during a week when what was to have been the marquee matchup of Thanksgiving night, the Ravens- Steelers game, was repeatedly pushed back due to multiple COVID-19 cases involving Baltimore, including reigning league MVP Lamar Jackson. That game was played six days later, with heavily favored Pittsburgh holding on for a 19-14 win.
The virus has been forcing postponements, knocking key players out of action and jumbling betting lines since Week 4 back in October.
“It’s been pretty difficult,” said John Sheeran, director of trading for Fanduel. “We don’t have all the information on who’s going to play, but we do endeavor to have a line for every game.”
“The traders have to be more creative and apply their analytical skills to our lines more than ever before,” added Jay Croucher, head of trading for Pointsbet. “This year, it’s obviously more up in the air, particularly now that there are niche markets like player props.
“Denver loses all their quarterbacks, and now you have to set player props for Kendall Hinton,” he said. “It’s really just calculated guesswork. We set his passing yards at 120.5; he ended up with 13.”
One trend that has become particularly noticeable this season: Gamblers seem to be waiting longer than ever to place their bets as they wait till the last possible moment to see who’s playing and who isn’t.
Draftkings’ line on Broncos- Saints went from New Orleans giving up 51⁄
2 points to 161⁄ points.
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