Negative growth’s impact
Immigration can stem steep decline in U.S. population
I’ve seen and read at least a dozen reports and articles on how the pandemic, the shutdowns and the economic troubles are changing the way we do things and how we live our lives.
How we vote – by mail. How we shop – online. How we may start watching first run movies – at home. Sometimes it is put in the form of a question: “Will the handshake ever come back?” “How many of us will keep working from home or remotely after the pandemic?”
Sometimes it is future change and put in the form of strategic necessities to fix vulnerabilities: “We must bring chip production for computers or basic chemicals for drugs production back to the U.S.” “We must redesign our food processing, storage and distribution system.”
There are hundreds, if not thousands, of these social, economic and cultural changes to ponder, but we don’t seem to be spending any time considering the biggest change of all – there are going to be far fewer of us — Americans — to experience these changes. Our population is in for a decline, perhaps a fairly precipitous one.
Taking figures for 2020 (all estimates) from the CIA “World Fact Book,” the U.S. was supposed to have a “population growth rate” of .72, with a projected birth rate of 12.4/1000, a death rate of 8.3/1000, and a net immigration rate of 3/1000. It will take awhile to sort out the actual figures for 2020, but our death rate will likely go up, our net immigration rate will go down because of further federal restrictions and near shutdown of international air travel, and our birth rate will probably be down, too, amid fear of the pandemic, separation, or fear of bringing a child into a dangerous world.
The death rate for 2020 is going to prove very complicated. We all know that the coronavirus disproportionately carries away the elderly, and while these deaths may have implications for all sorts of things — such as nursing home and assisted living facility utilization, design, and staffing, the rate of the transfer of wealth to the next generation, or the evaluation of long-term care insurance rates — population growth estimates have an age adjustment factor. However, it turns out that the leading causes of death for young adults — suicide, murder, drug overdoses and motor vehicle crash fatalities — are all up considerably, too. Amazingly, while old folk are staying at home, not driving, young people are tearing around at incredible speeds trying to create a sense of freedom and wrapping their motorcycles around telephone poles.
Another surpising impact on the 2020 death rate: When the tsunami of layoffs occurred, millions of Americans lost their health insurance. Some officials are estimating that loss of access to medical care and the fear of going to hospitals and clinics may cause up to 10,000 “excess” deaths in 2020. This will continue in 2021. The only bright spot I could find, is that there looks like there will be a substantial decrease in deaths from flu because the public health measures we are doing to contain COVID -9 are also keeping the flu at bay.
It looks likely we will have a negative population growth rate for 2020 and 2021. The U.S. economy, built on consumerism, doesn’t like negative growth rates. How long and how steep the population decline ends up being will rely on several factors.
One of the most significant will be the rate of net immigration. Immigration has been keeping our population growth positive for years. Wouldn’t it be ironic if, in grasping our population slide, the business community and the future needs of our economy drive programs such as DACA and immigration and refugee reform through the Congress when politics and moral argument have been unable to seal the deal?
Wouldn’t be even more ironic if, ala Henry Ford insisting on paying his own workers enough to afford his cars, the business community, in search of replacement consumers and economic stimulus, advocated for the $15 minimum wage tied to a Social Security/ Medicare tax break for the first
$20,000 every wage earner makes?
There are indeed some changes being made. Some may see a decline in population as positive and a major opening for sustainability and global warming efforts. Others will see it as a threat to American capitalism (by the way, China’s population is already declining). We’ve got some heavy thinking to do.
It looks likely we will have a negative population growth rate for 2020 and 2021. The U.S. economy, built on consumerism, doesn’t like negative growth rates. How long and how steep the population decline ends up being will rely on several factors.