Emmy guesses when predicting the future is folly

“Watchmen” win only certainty about ceremony

Stipulated: “Watchmen” will win the Emmy Award for best limited series and Regina King, its indomitable center, will be honored at Sunday’s largely virtual ceremony hosted by Jimmy Kimmel.

Most everything else about the 72nd Primetime Emmy Awards is a question mark, including how smoothly the pandemic-constrained telecast (8 p.m., ABC) will unfold.

The show’s producers were still working out their final strategy as the TV industry’s big night neared. But housebound nominees, formally dressed or not, will be poised to go live on-screen and discover whether they’ve won or lost.

With the coronavirus turning so many of us into morose shutins, the small screen’s wealth of shows and performances has provided a key distraction.

TV academy voters have a chance to reward the best of the best and to recognize change. The streaming-induced growth of content opened doors to more trophy-worthy projects from those too often ignored, including people of color and women.

Against that backdrop, Associated Press Television Writer Lynn Elber and AP Entertainment Writer Mark Kennedy offer their predictions in the top categories — but accept zero blame for virtual office-pool betting losses.

Drama series

Elber: Should win: “Ozark.” Like the much-honored “Breaking Bad,” this morality play is woven out of family dysfunction and brutal criminality, masterfully written and acted.

Will win: “Succession.” A brassy, sexy power struggle that has the scope Emmy voters expect from a top drama, with bonus points for the au courant media empire setting.

Comedy series

Kennedy: Should win: “Schitt’s Creek,” but not enthusiastically.

Will win: “Schitt’s Creek.” In a weak category this year with lots of one-trick ponies and repetitive skits, this fish-out-ofwater show is the only one really beloved by voters. Not necessarily for its content, mind you.

Actor, drama series

Elber: Should win: Billy Porter, “Pose.” His victory last year, as the first openly gay man to be honored as best drama actor, was both historic and artistic. He deserves it again.

Will win: Jeremy Strong, “Succession.” His emotional tapdance as the wannabe heir is worthy, but I’ll use my caveat chit here: He and Cox could split the “Succession” vote, giving gear-shifting Steve Carell, “The Morning Show,” an opening.

Actress, drama series

Kennedy: Should win: Zendaya. Zendaya. Zendaya. In “Euphoria,” she is remarkable.

Will win: Laura Linney, “Ozark.” One of the most underappreciated actors working today.

Actor, comedy series

Elber: Should win: Ted Danson, “The Good Place.” Dying is easy, comedy is hard — except to this effortless master of the sitcom, whether based in a bar (“Cheers”) or the afterlife.

Will win: Eugene Levy, “Schitt’s Creek.” He’s playing new notes in his longstanding, finely tuned comedic partnership with co-star Catherine O’hara, and it will pay off.

Actress, comedy series

Kennedy: Should win: Issa Rae. The HBO comedy’s creator and star’s work on “Insecure” needs to be celebrated.

Will win: Catherine O’hara, “Schitt’s Creek.” Like it was said before, resistance is futile.

Limited series

Elber: Should win: “Watchmen.” An ambitious interpretation of a highly regarded graphic novel, one prescient in its connection with today’s bleak zeitgeist.

Will win: “Watchmen.” While second-wave feminist history “Mrs. America” is worthy competition, the daring and currency of “Watchmen” is insurmountable.

Kennedy: Should win: “Watchmen” — bold, complex storytelling. But it may be a little too enigmatic for a mainstream audience. A warning was that it earned not even a single Golden Globe nod.

Will win: “Watchmen,” though “Little Fires Everywhere,” in a surprise, could pull it out. That show ruthlessly explored class, race, privilege and separated families — how very, very 2020.