Study adds up a tally of grief

From March to July, 4,200 New York children lost a parent to COVID-19, analysts estimate

A new study estimates that 4,200 children in New York lost a parent or guardian to coronavirus between March and July, and 325,000 children were newly thrust into poverty or near-poverty as a result of the pandemic’s staggering job losses.

The analysis by United Hospital Fund and Boston Consulting Group, published last week, aimed to quantify the impact the pandemic has had on New York’s children and concluded it’s been severe and racially disparate — and will have long-lasting effects well into adulthood.

“This pandemic is like nothing we’ve ever seen before,” said Suzanne Brundage, director of UHF’S Children’s Health Initiative and co-author of the report. “The closest

comparison in the state would be 9/11, when more than 3,000 children lost a parent.”

Nearly a quarter of the children who lost caregivers during the pandemic may have lost a sole parent or guardian, putting them at risk of entering foster care or the care of a relative, the study found. A majority will suffer financial hardship, with about half entering poverty, it concluded.

The combined impact of those traumas will likely have ripple effects long into the future, the study ’s authors write.

“Losing a parent or caregiver during childhood raises a child’s risk of developing a range of poor outcomes over their lifetime, including poorer mental and physical health,” Brundage said.

The loss of a parent is considered an adverse childhood experience, or ACE. Researchers have found persistent evidence since the 1990s that the more ACES a child experiences — things such as abuse, neglect, a parent going to jail or dying — the more likely they are to suffer academically and from chronic disease, substance misuse and depression in later life.

The pandemic hit New York’s children of color especially hard.

Black and Hispanic children were twice as likely to have lost a guardian to coronavirus than their white and Asian counterparts, with one in every 600 Black children and one in every 700 Hispanic children experiencing a loss, compared with one in every 1,400 Asian children and one in every 1,500 white children. The statewide rate is one in every 1,000 children.

Children in New York City and downstate counties also lost parents at high rates. The study found that 57 percent of New York’s parental deaths were concentrated in the Bronx, Brooklyn and Queens.

County-level data attached to the report show potentially significant losses in the Capital Region as well, with Columbia, Albany and Warren counties landing in the top 20 counties statewide where children were most likely to have lost a parent to COVID -19. A local breakdown of the rates at which children 18 and younger are estimated to have lost a parent by the end of July is as follows: Columbia County: 1 in 1,990; Albany County: 1 in 2,400; Warren County: 1 in 3,000; Fulton County: 1 in 4,270; Rensselaer County: 1 in 6,330; Schenectady County: 1 in 7,040; Washington County: 1 in 8,430; Greene County: 1 in 12,550; Montgomery County: 1 in 17,570; Saratoga County: 1 in 73,130.

Economic toll

Nearly 14,800 children from those Capital Region counties were newly thrust into poverty or near-poverty due to a parent’s job loss in 2020.

Teen unemployment soared in the state, too. An estimated 77,000 additional teens were unemployed in June compared with the 2019 average, the study notes. This matters, the authors say, because teens in low-income families often work to help support their families, and teen unemployment has been linked to mental health hospitalizations in later life and depressed future earnings.

The study contends these trends could cost the state between $550 million to $800 million over the next 12 months when you factor in partial rent and nutritional support, new state Medicaid coverage, and access to internet and devices for remote learning.

Over the children’s lifetimes they could cost the state $1.7 billion, the study estimates, while the children themselves stand to lose $8.5 billion in annual earnings as adults due to learning deficits that stem from disrupted or remote education.

“As New Yorkers determine how to respond to the pandemic during a precarious city and state budget situation, it is critical not to lose sight of its immediate and long-term effects on child poverty, mental health and overall well-being,” said UHF President Anthony Shih. “We hope this analysis will provide policymakers and community leaders with the data to help develop necessary strategies and policies.”

The authors note that they were not able to estimate the pandemic’s poverty-related effects on children living with undocumented workers or the compounding effects of parental job loss on families already living in or near poverty prior to the pandemic.