Mcconnell is trying to salvage the Senate
If Biden wins, Dems still need 3 seats for majority
If Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden wins, Democrats still need 3 seats for a majority in the U.S. Senate./
Washington Senate Majority Leader Mitch Mcconnell spent a year prepping his Republican colleagues for this moment, telling them the confirmation of a Supreme Court justice is the “most important” vote they will take as senators, the chance to make “seismic change” that will stay with the nation for generations to come.
Now, three weeks before Election Day, the GOP leader needs this moment more than ever.
Confirmation hearings are set to begin Monday for President Donald Trump’s Supreme Court nominee giving Republicans one last chance to salvage their Senate majority by wresting attention away from the White House and its COVID -19 response and onto the GOP’S longtime goal of fashioning a conservative court.
The arrival of conservative Judge Amy Coney Barrett offers a long-shot opportunity to bring wayward Republican voters back in the fold. As Trump’s standing drops in internal polls, Mcconnell hopes to remind voters why they stuck with Trump in 2016: the promise of another conservative justice ruling on abortion access and other big issues. Democrats are within range of seizing Senate control Nov. 3.
“It’s going to do what it’s going to do — energize the base,” said Doug Deason, a Dallas donor who is the Northern Texas fundraising chairman for Trump and helps congressional Republicans.
That’s the optimistic view. It’s coming mostly from those Republicans and backers still pouring millions of dollars into campaign efforts to salvage Mcconnell’s slim 53-47 GOP majority.
The more dour assessment is that Mcconnell is simply trying to grab whatever he can before he and his majority are out the door.
“To me, it just indicates a clear lack of confidence in Donald Trump and these Senate races,” said Stuart Stevens, a veteran Republican strategist who helmed Mitt Romney’s 2012 campaign and now is among those trying to defeat Trump.
Democrats need to gain at least three seats to win the Senate majority if presidential nominee Joe Biden is elected, or four if Trump wins a secondterm, because party ’s vice president can vote as a tie-breaker in the Senate.
What started as an election cycle with just a handful of senators at risk has ballooned into an expanding Senate map as Republicans face tough challenges, while Democrats see few.
Alarms are flashing red throughout Republican Senate campaigns after Trump’s overbearing debate performance and COVID diagnosis sent the party ’s poll numbers cratering, particularly among the suburban white women and moms who helped elect him in 2016.
In group meetings and one on one, Mcconnell started raising the prospect of a Supreme Court vacancy last year, according to a person close to the leader. He told them legislating can bring incremental changes but as senators they have few opportunities to make the more substantial, lasting shift that comes with a lifetime appointment to the court.
The hearings will spotlight Sen. Lindsey Graham, chair of the Judiciary Committee, who faces his own competitive re-election in South Carolina, where Democrat Jaime Harrison is raising millions to defeat him.
The panel includes Thom Tillis in North Carolina, who was in a tough race until opponent Cal Cunningham was caught up in a text-messaging scandal; and Texas Sen. John Cornyn, a party leader, is suddenly fielding off a challenger; and Sen. Joni Ernst, who is up for reelection in Iowa.
The confirmation battle could also bolster Sen. Martha Mcsally in Arizona, who is trailing former astronaut Mark Kelly, and it could help stem the sudden slide in GOP strongholds — Steve Daines in Montana, Kelly Loeffler in Georgia or in Kansas where Sen. Pat Roberts is retiring, strategists said.
On the flip side, the court battle is less helpful for Sens. Susan Collins in Maine and Cory Gardner in Colorado and Ernst in Iowa, where Trump was already less popular and now a drag on the GOP ticket.