Voter rolls swell in region

Increase led by newly registered Democrats

More than 200,000 additional voters in New York’s 19th, 20th and 21st Congressional Districts were active and registered as of September in comparison to November 2016 — an increase attributable in large part to Democratic registrations.

Overall, the swelling rolls of active voters are a good predictor of high turnout for the Nov. 3 election, said Mara Suttman-lea, assistant professor of government at Connecticut College, who studies voter registration trends.

For Democrats, there are positive signs in the numbers. Most notably, New York’s 19th District saw an 11 percent increase in the number of active registered Democrats from Nov. 1, 2016 to Feb. 21, compared to just a 1 percent increase in active Republicans, according to data from the New York Board of Elections.

In 2016, that district had virtually an even number of registered Republicans and Democrats. Democrats subsequently outnumbered Republicans in 2018 — the year U.S. Rep. Antonio Delgado, D -Rhinebeck won the seat back from Republicans — and have increased their edge in 2020.

“One piece from 2016 to 2020 is the amount of effort that the Delgado campaign and other Democratic groups put in to registering people in that district,” said Christopher Mann,

assistant professor of political science at Skidmore College. “While it had been competitive, it hadn’t been as competitive, or certainly as well funded. ... Eleven percent is a lot, but it’s fitting with other trends we have seen of mobilization of Democrats across the country to get more involved in politics. That’s been most noticeable in places where there is a sense that their vote matters and it’s new.”

In New York’s 20th District, which includes Albany, the number of active registered Democrats grew 5 percent from Nov. 1, 2016 to Feb. 21, while Republican active registrations decreased 3 percent, according to state Board of Elections data. In the North Country, New York’s 21st District, active registered Democrats increased 2 percent, compared to a 1 percent decrease in active GOP voters during the same time period.

For a more up-to-date look, the Times Union reviewed voter registration data from the 24 counties in the three congressional districts as of mid- September. Those counties boards of elections shared their enrollment data between Sept. 14 and this past Thursday.

The county-level data highlights significant Democratic gains in active voters from November 2016 to this fall in Columbia, Greene, Saratoga and Ulster counties. Republicans increased their support in Sullivan, Montgomery, Schoharie and St. Lawrence counties.

Friday was the last day most New Yorkers could have registered to vote by mail or in person.

Counties turning blue

Columbia County stands out for having the largest percentage increase in active voters from 2016 to this fall: a 13 percent gain. The increase appears largely fueled by a spike in Democratic voters. The county had a 32 percent increase in Democrats from 2016 to this fall, compared to a 3 percent increase in Republicans and a 4 percent growth in unaffiliated voters, data provided by the county Board of Elections shows. The greatest Democratic growth came before the 2018 midterm.

“In 2016, we still had voters who were apathetic in the Democratic party,” said Keith Kanaga, the Columbia County Democratic party chair. “By 2018, in November, we had had two years of [President Donald] Trump and we also had results of the congressional election. ... Antonio has been an incredible candidate and an incredible campaigner and has really caught people’s attention and admiration.”

Kanaga added the Democratic committee has been actively encouraging voter registrations by setting up tables ( before COVID -19) at train stations, fairs and farmers markets, and contacting unregistered voters by mail and phone.

Also, in the 19th Congressional District, a strong Republican county, Greene County, saw a 21 percent increase in active Democratic voters from 2016 to this fall, paired with a 3 percent increase in Republican voters. A blue county, Ulster, had a 19 percent increase in active Democrats from 2016 to this year and 1 percent decrease in Republicans, moving it more firmly into strong Democratic turf.

Saratoga County, which straddles the 20th and 21st congressional districts, was solid red territory in 2016, but 2020 data shows Democrats are starting to close the gap. The county experienced a 19 percent increase in

Democratic voters from 2016 to this year, compared to a 1 percent increase in Republican voters. More voters are choosing no party as well: that category saw a 7 percent gain. The county ’s overall voter registration was already up 8 percent over 2016 as of Oct. 5, data from the county Board of Elections shows.

“The county as a whole has increased population. More people are coming in,” said Todd Kerner, Saratoga County Democratic Party chair. “I think there’s a lot people of also switching. There is a lot more people switching from Republican to Democrat than Democrat to Republican. It’s because of Donald Trump’s lack of leadership in the White House.”

This cycle, Trump has targeted some of his rhetoric directly at suburban voters, speaking against low-income housing in those neighborhoods.

“It doesn’t necessarily seem to be a strategy that’s working,” said Suttman-lea. “The white suburban female voter — and in this context we’re talking about the wealthy, white female suburban voter — that may have flipped for

Trump in 2016, there is a shift in that demographic and that geographic party back toward the Democratic Party.”

Counties with GOP growth

While Democrats saw large gains, Republicans realized limited increases in registrations, if any, in the region. New York’s 19th District had a 1 percent increase in active Republican registrations from 2016 to this fall, while the 21st District had a 1 percent decrease and the 20th District had a 3 percent decrease.

In Sullivan County, where Democrats hold a narrow edge over Republicans, the GOP grew by 14 percent from November 2016 to this week, an increase of 544 voters, according to data from the Sullivan County Board of Elections.

In the GOP stronghold of Schoharie County, Republicans had a 7 percent increase in enrollment from 2016 to this fall, outpacing the 4 percent increase in Democratic voters, data from the county Board of Elections shows.

“I think that like him or hate him, President Trump in this area has gotten a lot of people involved who were not involved in politics, people who had never voter before,” said Assemblyman Christopher Tague, R- Schoharie. He added: “We have concentrated, probably since the last presidential election, on a concerted effort to get people registered. We sent out letters to folks who moved into the community.”

A purple area, Montgomery County, which straddles the 19th and 20th districts, had a 7 percent increase in Republicans from 2016 to this year, and a 9 percent increase in unaffiliated voters.

In the North Country, the light-blue St. Lawrence County experienced a 6 percent increase in Republican active registrations from 2016 to this year, with a 1 percent decrease in Democrats, leveling the playing field between the two parties there.

The Democrats saw declines in registrations since 2016 in the 21st District. Fulton, Herkimer and Lewis counties also lost Democratic enrollment.

Mann said a “bellwether” for the strength of GOP versus Democratic mobilization this year will the 21st District race between U.S. Rep. Elise Stefanik, R- Schuylerville, and Democrat Tedra Cobb; Stefanik is favored to win again, but it’s unclear how wide that margin may be if she prevails.

“Can voter registration change a district like that?” Mann wondered.