More voters check ‘unaffiliated’
Rising number decline to align themselves with either major party
Minor political parties in New York, many of which suffered a devastating blow with losing state ballot access, hope to tap into a growing number of New Yorkers who do not identify with a political party.
Unaffiliated voters, those who registered as “blank,” increased 22 percent from 2015, surpassing the Republican Party ’s total enrollment in the state by more than 65,000 enrollees. Meanwhile, New Yorkers registered with a party not listed on New York’s voter registration climbed 28 percent, according to a Times Union analysis of voter registration data from a five-year period beginning in November 2015.
While the major political parties saw enrollment increase during this past election cycle, minor-party leaders say the
latest enrollment figures suggest more New Yorkers are turned off by the major parties, and they believe it will open the door for more minor-party influence.
“We think that trend is an important one that should be sending a message to our leaders, that there are more and more people who are not happy with the two-party system,” said Martin Babinec, founder of the Upstate Jobs Party. “For us, for the future, we feel there is a tremendous opportunity to engage disenfranchised voters who really have no voice.”
Despite the increase in New Yorkers registering as unaffiliated, 50 percent of voters are enrolled in the Democratic Party; 22 percent are enrolled in the Republican Party; 22 percent are unaffiliated voters; and the remainder are enrolled in various minor parties.
New York is noted for its progressive leanings, with the majority of voting Democrats residing in New York City, which often leaves the rest of the state frustrated with the metropolis’ influence. It has also created a divide in the state, with those further north feeling forgotten or ignored.
“The pandemic has shown that we have significant flaws in the upstate economy, and areas where we thought we were doing well, when you sweep in with a pandemic, really wiped out a lot of that success really, really quickly,” Babinec said.
The Upstate Jobs Party — as the name would suggest — focuses on rejuvenating the upstate economy through education and economic development reforms, government reforms like ballot access and term limits, and supporting entrepreneurs and the innovation economy.
Elizabeth Bennion, a political science professor at Indiana University South Bend, cautioned against concluding that voters registering as independents represent a repudiation of the major parties.
According to an ongoing Gallup survey of party affiliation, 38 percent of Americans identify as independent as of early November, while the remainder are split around 30 percent each for the two major parties. Butwhen self-proclaimed independent voters are pressed to say whether they are Democratic or Republican leaning, partisanship becomes clearer.
“We know across the board the number of people claiming to be independents has risen, but a caveat applies,” Bennion said. “Even when people feel disgusted with the parties and say they are independent, political scientists will generally identify them as closet partisans or partisanleaners.”
Indeed, when independents are asked their political leanings, enrollment slightly tips to Democrats with 48 percent identifying as a Democrat or Democrat-leaning, and 45 percent identifying as Republican or Republican-leaning, the latest Gallup numbers show.
Unaffiliated voters also include a large portion of young voters who may lack the experience to understand their respective state’s civic process; have had little contact with any political party or politically affiliated group; or are uncertain on the benefits of enrolling in a party, said Kristian Lundberg, a researcher for the Center for Information & Research on Civic Learning and Engagement at Tufts University in Massachusetts.
Political party leadership tends to be older, which also can disenchant young voters, Lundberg said.
“If there is an institution more skewed towards older people and biased against younger people, it’s hard for younger people to see the rationale for joining,” he said. “You have to really center young people and youth voices within your staff, campaign and volunteers. Make sure you are listening to them and not treating them as tokens.”
Bennion said given that independents often have left or right leanings — along with the unknown of what would be a centrist approach to issues dominating the political arena — it would be unlikely that independent voters will be easy to mobilize. Meanwhile, minor parties often stray further left or right from the major parties, despite voter sentiment that the two major parties are too extreme, she said.
That does not mean minor parties do not have a place in political discourse; over the years they have influenced the policies of the major parties, Bennion noted.
“Successful major-party strategists will have a pulse on the electorate in each state and nationally, and tend to co-op those issues that minor parties raise as particularly important,” she said. “That’s one of the things that both major parties will need to do as they struggle for their identity.”
Upstate Jobs Party Chairman John Bullis expressed confidence that the shift to minor-party or unaffiliated voter enrollment is a recognition that that a centrist approach will get things done.
“The only way we get something done and have it sustainable is through the middle,” he said. “We have been battered back and forth for decades, and I think people are finally coming to the realization that in order to get something done and make it stick, it has to be this delicate balance through the middle.”