Election 2020
Columnist Chris Churchill writes about the suburb that turned against Trump./
Despite what he claims, President Donald Trump lost the election. If you want to understand why, take a look at vote tallies from Halfmoon. The fast-growing town in southern Saratoga County is fertile ground for Republicans. The GOP has a significant, though narrowing, enrollment advantage in Halfmoon, and there are no Democrats on the Town Board.
In 2016, town voters gave Donald Trump a win of nearly 700 votes, helping the Republican carry the county.
But Halfmoon turned against Trump in 2020. Democrat Joe Biden won the town by about 500 votes.
The swing was replicated in similar places around the country. Though Trump has claimed — without evidence — that fraud in big cities stole the election from him, in truth he lost the race because Biden carried
suburban areas that were once reliable territory for Republicans.
In the important swing state of Pennsylvania, for example, Trump actually narrowed the margin in Philadelphia compared to four years ago, a shock to many Democrats. But Biden won the city ’s suburbs by much larger margins than Hillary Clinton, allowing him to carry the state.
New York is nobody ’s idea of a swing state, but the patterns in Capital Region suburbs are the same.
In Rensselaer County, Trump won in Brunswick, outside Troy, by about 500 votes four years ago. In November, he lost the town by nearly 200 votes. Trump likewise won in North Greenbush four years ago, but lost this time around as the broader county also flipped from red to blue.
Back in Saratoga County, Trump lost Clifton Park four years ago by just more than 1,000 votes. This year, amid higher turnout, he was defeated by roughly 3,500.
The president won Wilton, outside of Saratoga Springs, by 18 votes in 2016. This year, he lost there by roughly 1,200 votes. (There are other examples from around the region, but I won’t belabor the point.)
“Trump still won big in rural parts of the county,” said Todd Kerner, who chairs the Saratoga County Democratic Committee. “But in the suburban areas, his messaging and his behavior — people were just tired of it.”
I think that’s right. Even among relatively conservative voters, Trump’s act wore thin.
And a Republican who can’t win Saratoga County is unlikely to win the national contest. Trump won the county in 2016 but lost it this year.
The county is a bellwether, in fact, having voted for the winning candidate in every presidential election since 1992. Its swing from red to blue seems a significant indicator of the national mood.
John Wasielewski, a Republican on the Halfmoon Town Board, agreed the president’s personality was a factor in the race. But he also pointed to changing demographics and a rapidly growing population as explanations for his town’s swing.
“Halfmoon is not the farm families it used to be,” Wasielewski said. “Those farms are now housing developments.”
Still, Republicans not named Trump can do well in Halfmoon. Consider that Daphne Jordan, a Republican re-elected to the state Senate, bested Trump’s total by more than 700 votes, showing that plenty of Gop-friendly voters were unwilling to support the president.
That helps explain why Trump lost. He did not lose because he was cheated. I’ll repeat what I’ve said in prior columns: There is no evidence of fraud significant enough to overturn the election. Not even close.
Can we agree? Isn’t it obvious by now, given the court rulings rebuffing the president’s claims, that he wasn’t victimized?
Oh, I know from my inbox that some of you aren’t willing to concede that.
“If you think the Democrats didn’t cheat in this election, you must be watching CNN. Who in their right mind would vote for Biden?” Jean, a self-described “faithful reader,” wrote this week. “I will never vote again if the Supreme Court doesn’t fix this and give President Trump his win.”
The Supreme Court is not going to do that, Jean. And the loss of faith you’ve expressed is why Trump’s bad-faith claims are so destructive. (For the record, I don’t watch CNN.)
“You must be under a rock not to see the massive voter fraud that took place in this election,” a reader named Frank wrote, adding that to claim otherwise shows “hate toward conservative values.” Conservative values? Given that conservatism is said to indicate respect for tradition, modesty and the rule of law, what is conservative about Trump claiming, without evidence and despite court rulings to the contrary, that our elections are rotten and manipulated by shadowy forces?
What’s conservative about suggesting, as the president’s allies have, that other Republicans are in on the fraud? What’s conservative about refusing to admit defeat and whining about losing ?
What’s conservative about Trump falsely saying he won in a landslide when he didn’t even win in Halfmoon?