Has New York’s ‘third-term curse’ struck again?
Before the recent tsunami of scandals, Gov. Andrew Cuomo appeared to be a shoo-in for a fourth term. Close observers of New York politics would not be shocked that Cuomo self-destructed during his third term. History offers striking examples of what some have called “the third-term curse.”
Ed Koch’s third term shows how quickly political fortunes can change. Koch won a third term as mayor in 1985 with 78 percent of the vote. A cascade of problems soon overwhelmed his administration, including a serious corruption scandal in the Parking Violations Bureau. The scandal resulted in criminal convictions for Koch allies Stanley Friedman and Meade Esposito, the Democratic chairs of the Bronx and Brooklyn, respectively. Queens chair Donald Manes was implicated in the scandal and committed suicide. Koch’s third term was also marred by racial tensions, the crack epidemic, the AIDS crisis, homelessness, and rising crime.
Politicians are reluctant to relinquish power, but it consistently ends badly for those seeking a fourth term as governor or mayor. David Dinkins defeated Koch decisively in the Democratic Primary. Gov. Mario Cuomo achieved national prominence as a liberal icon, but voters denied him a fourth term by choosing a little-known state senator, George Pataki.
Nelson Rockefeller — the most formidable New York governor of the modern era — won a fourth term in 1970 by 730,000 votes. Rockefeller’s fourth term damaged his legacy considerably. It was noteworthy for the Attica prison riot, passage of draconian drug laws, and the state’s deteriorating fiscal picture. When negotiations with inmates reached an impasse, Rockefeller refused to go to Attica and ordered the State Police to retake the prison. The ensuing bloodbath ended with 29 inmates and 10 hostages dead, nearly all at the hands of the State Police. During Rockefeller’s final year in office, he pushed through harsh drug laws that sent many individuals to prison for minor offenses and had an especially devastating impact on minority communities and families.
Although New York City now limits its mayors to two consecutive terms, this is inherently undemocratic. It is better to let voters decide. But they should be wary of any governor who fails to follow Hugh Carey’s wise example. He didn’t seek even a third term.