Netanyahu has path to a majority
Exit polls show he may emerge with a sixth term
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s party held a lead in Israel’s fourth election in two years, exit polls projected Tuesday night, giving him a chance of forming a coalition to stay in power for a sixth term.
Three broadcasters’ exit polls projected that Netanyahu’s party, Likud, won from 31 to 33 seats, while his wider right-wing bloc won 53 to 54 seats — short of the 61 seats he needs to form a majority coalition in the 120-seat Parliament.
Netanyahu’s most obvious path to power now depends on Naftali Bennett, a rival right-winger whose party won seven to eight seats and who could be a kingmaker.
With Bennett’s support, Netanyahu could assemble one of the most right-wing governments in Israeli history, created from ultraOrthodox parties, ultranationalists, a group that campaigns against gay rights and another whose leader advocates expelling Arab citizens of Israel deemed disloyal to the state.
Final results are not expected until the end of the week. Netanyahu campaigned on his record of handling the coronavirus pandemic, including a vaccine rollout that is the envy of the world, a credential that appears to have benefited him. Seeking reelection even as he was on trial on corruption charges did not prove fatal to his chances.
Netanyahu thanked voters on Twitter late Tuesday for handing “an enormous victory to the right wing and Likud under my leadership.”
“It is clear that the overwhelming majority of the citizens of Israel are right-wingers and they want a strong and stable right-wing government that will safeguard the economy of Israel, the security of Israel and the land of Israel,” he said.
If he does return to power, Netanyahu has promised to enact sweeping legal reforms that would limit the power of the judiciary, and which his opponents fear would allow him to circumvent his corruption trial. Netanyahu’s colleagues have prevaricated in recent days about whether he would use his office to avoid prosecution, with one minister on Saturday refusing to rule it out.
Netanyahu denies any wrongdoing and denies that he would try to change the law to derail the trial.
“Israelis are more divided than ever, but it seems that Netanyahu may have convinced enough of them that he’s the most capable of leading the country in facing the challenges ahead,” said Yohanan Plesner, president of the Israel Democracy Institute, a Jerusalem-based research group.
“His likely coalition will include partners who are expected to back Netanyahu in efforts he makes to impede the independence of the judicial system,” Plesner said.
The election caps two years of political uncertainty and polarization in which Israel has reeled from election to election to election, failing each time to return a stable government. The impasse is partly rooted in the nature of the Israeli election system, which allocates parliamentary seats according to each party’s share of the vote, making it hard for larger parties to form majority governments.
But the stasis is also the result of Netanyahu’s refusal to resign despite standing trial over accusations of bribery, fraud and breach of trust. That decision has split the rightwing bloc that has kept Netanyahu in power for the past 12 years and divided voters and parties less by political ideology than by their attitude to Netanyahu himself.
Since neither Netanyahu nor his opponents could win a majority in the three previous elections, in 2019 and 2020, Netanyahu remained in power, first as a caretaker prime minister and then at the helm of a shaky unity government with some of his fiercest critics.
But Tuesday’s results could finally return him to a position of strength, at the helm of an ideologically coherent right-wing coalition.
All eyes now fall on Bennett, once a chief of staff to Netanyahu who formed his own right-wing party in 2011 and has since been a minister in several previous Netanyahu-led coalition governments.