Columnist’s view
Chris Churchill says Stefanik, Giuliani don’t stand a chance to become governor.
Let’s get something straight. No Republican with ties to Donald Trump will defeat Andrew Cuomo in next year’s race for governor, no matter how much the Democratic incumbent is tarred by scandal.
Elise Stefanik would not beat Cuomo. Neither would Lee Zeldin, the Republican congressman from Long Island. There isn’t a chance in the world that Andrew Giuliani beats the governor. Andrew Giuliani?
That’s the son of Rudy Giuliani, remembered for his childhood antics during his father’s 1994 mayoral inauguration and spoofed by the late, great Chris Farley in iconic Saturday Night Live sketches. Young Andrew is all grown up now and, fresh off a nepotism job in Trump’s White House, says he’s planning to run for governor. Seriously.
“Outside of anybody named
Trump, I think I have the best chance to win and take the state back,” Giuliani told the Washington Examiner. “I think there’s an opportunity in 2022 with a wounded Democratic candidate, whether it’s going to be Gov. Cuomo, whether it’s going to be a radical Letitia James, whether it’s going to be a no-name lieutenant governor, I think there’s a very, very real chance to win.”
Oh, boy. Where do we begin? Does Giuliani not understand the damage his father’s post-election madness has done to the family surname? Does he not know that Democrats in New York — especially in New York City — would turn out in droves to defeat a candidate associated with the Trump White House?
This is the GOP’S version of Trump Derangement Syndrome — the deranged belief that anybody tied to the former president has a snowball’s chance in a very hot place of winning in deep-blue New York.
It. Will. Never. Happen. Not for Stefanik or Zeldin, who are said to be eyeing a run despite being among Trump’s most voracious impeachment defenders. And certainly not for young Giuliani. Trump, who was seen favorably by just 31 percent of voters in the most recent Siena poll, is toxic here.
But as our governor has shown, there’s a special hubris that comes with being the son of a famous politician, including the belief that having a recognizable name is a qualification. The younger Giuliani, after all, is just 35 years old and has no experience running, well, anything at all. The idea of him atop New York’s government is ludicrous.
Stefanik and Zeldin might be more plausible if they hadn’t sold their integrity to Trump’s election lies. Put it this way: Anyone cynical enough to vote against certifying legitimate presidential election results, as Zeldin and Stefanik did, just hours after rioters stormed the U.S. Capitol, won’t win in New York. Nor should they.
None of this is to say that Cuomo isn’t vulnerable to a Republican challenger as scandals and allegations pile up. Read the disturbing and newly published Times Union interview with the staffer alleging that she was groped by Cuomo and it’s easy to doubt he’ll survive this term or run for a fourth. If he does, he could be defeated in the Democratic primary.
Voters, after all, need not wait for the report on sexual harassment allegations from Attorney General Tish James to know Cuomo is unfit for office, not after his nursing home deceptions and other abuses. But Trump was similarly unfit, and any Republican candidate who spent years justifying the former president’s behavior will be unable to execute the case against Cuomo.
Skyrocketing state spending is another potential vulnerability; some voter backlash is inevitable after the eye-popping budget just approved by the governor and Democrats in the Legislature, especially if New York’s economy sputters. Consider that the $212 billion spending plan almost equals the proposed budget in California, a state with twice the population.
“These folks have surpassed all laws of economic and political reality,” John Faso, the former congressman and Assembly minority leader, told me Wednesday, describing the budget as an opportunity for Republicans. “We’re at a level we’ve never seen before in terms of reckless spending.”
But Trump ran up the federal deficit with help from allies in Congress. So how could Stefanik, Zeldin or even the younger Giuliani credibly make the case for fiscal responsibility?
Cuomo would gleefully wrap all three in Trump’s sins and use them as replacement bolts for the controversy-plagued bridge named after his father. The race would allow him to return to an anti-trump playbook that has served him well. Donald has long been Andrew’s perfect foil.
If there’s hope for Republicans, it’s that Stefanik, Zeldin and Giuliani cancel each other in the primary, leaving the nomination for somebody like Dutchess County Executive Marc Molinaro, who ran against Cuomo last time, or another candidate who could run as the un-trumpy face of moderation.
An embattled Cuomo still might win. But he could also lose.