What a next term may bring for Biden

Americans have a very good idea what four-times-indicted former president Donald Trump would do in a second term. He and his cronies have let on: Cut off Ukraine aid (“settle the war,” in his parlance, means give Russia what it wants), weaponize the Justice Department against his enemies, use the military to suppress dissent, shred the civil service, appoint compliant judges, expand his Muslim ban, break up NATO and repeal the Affordable Care Act. Having boasted about overturning Roe v. Wade, he would surely be compelled to pursue a nationwide abortion ban.

To consider what President Joe Biden would do in a second term requires that we examine two entirely separate scenarios. When MAGA Republicans lead the House and can paralyze the Senate (if not hold the majority outright), they oppose even legislation they say they want. That is precisely what happened in the border debate. Forget confirming Biden judges or executive branch appointees if Republicans have the Senate majority. And bring on the impeachment proceedings for Biden (don’t ask on what basis!) and whatever other Cabinet official raise their ire. Though a second Trump term would be catastrophic, a second Biden term with Republicans running Capitol Hill would be a three-ring circus. Biden would be hard pressed just to keep the government open, the country from defaulting and impeachment from becoming commonplace.

That brings us to a secondterm scenario in which, as Biden had in his first two years, Democrats hold slim majorities in both the House and the Senate. In that case, Biden would need to make a major determination: “Go big” (before Democrats go home) or “Go bipartisan.”

“Go big” would recognize that our democracy is suffering from structural infirmities well beyond the MAGA movement. The MAGA Republican Party has learned to transform rules favoring the minority into the

tyranny of a demographically shrinking, mostly white, Christian party. When Democrats have power (however briefly), a go-big outlook would recognize the urgency of protecting our democracy by enhancing majority rule.

That almost certainly would require modification, if not the demise, of the filibuster. If Democrats were that bold, they could achieve pro-democracy aims such as D.C. statehood, resuscitation of the preclearance provisions of the Voting Rights Act, additional voting reform (e.g., standardized early voting, nonpartisan redistricting) and significant Supreme Court reform (mandatory ethics rules and/or term limits).

Beyond those structural reforms, Biden might go after the items that did not make it into the Inflation Reduction Act, including more extensive subsidized child care, universal prekindergarten and tax reform (e.g., raise the corporate rate back to 28 percent, narrow the gap in rates between earned income and capital gains, enact a surtax on the super-rich). He could also cement abortion rights into federal law by statute. And he might pursue comprehensive immigration reform, including a permanent fix for “Dreamers.”

Not all of that would get done, even with filibuster reform and a Democratic majority in Congress. However, the end result would be a substantially more democratic (small-d) and more economically and socially equal society.

Given the timidity of Senate Democrats and Biden’s own centrist bent, however, Biden is more likely to hedge on filibuster reform, leaving him the “go bipartisan” option. Akin to the first two years of his first term, Biden would be pursuing piecemeal deals with the sort of Republicans who backed the infrastructure deal, including Bill Cassidy of Louisiana, Susan Collins of Maine, Lisa Murkowski of Alaska and Shelley Moore Capito of West Virginia. (It is noteworthy that of the 19 Republican senators who voted for the infrastructure deal, four already have left or will have left the Senate by the beginning of a second Biden term, tilting the GOP even further to the right.)

Biden would need to craft an agenda with those sort of allies in mind. Beyond keeping the government open and out of default, he would be forced to pick his battles carefully. Without Trump telling them to vote it down, a sufficient number of Republicans might back the recent border security bill but nothing more on the immigration front. Mandatory ethics rules for justices could well pass but not fundamental structural changes for the high court. Biden might persuade Republicans to expand the number of lower-court seats, which has not been done in decades, provided the new appointments were spread out over multiple terms, giving Republican presidents a chance to fill some of them. At the very least, Biden could keep filling empty seats with diverse, qualified nominees.

Biden could also make headway on long-overdue executive branch reforms that rational Republicans might favor (without Trump pulling the strings): mandatory disclosure of the president’s and vice president’s tax returns, enforcement mechanisms for violations of the Hatch Act and the emoluments clause, transparency for presidential pardons and repeal of many of the “emergency power” provisions in federal law that give the president unilateral authority.

“Go bipartisan,” in essence, would prevent the horrors of MAGA obstruction and nihilism and perhaps allow passage of a few modest bills. However, by and large, this strategy would leave unaddressed major issues (e.g., voting rights, child care, tax fairness, Dreamers) that cry out for solutions. That’s what the future holds in a second Biden term if Democrats claim the majority but refuse to address the filibuster.

Not very exciting, you say? Well, voters should be grilling Democratic Senate candidates on their willingness to prune or uproot the filibuster. That would make a world of difference to Biden, the country and our democracy.