Saudis, Iran put U.S. policy to the test
Analyst says regional rivalry’s outcome could have more impact than terrorism.
WASHINGTON — In the 13 years since the American military deposed Iraqi strongman Saddam Hussein in the Middle East, Saudi Arabia and Iran have emerged as the most-powerful countries in the region with both nations posing challenges for U.S. foreign policy.
Toby Jones, an associate professor of history at Rutgers University and expert on the modern Middle East, will discuss the complex geopolitical dynamics in an Albuquerque International Association lecture on Sunday, Aug. 28, at the UNM Continuing Education Conference Center.
“We understand the region primarily through the lens of networks like ISIS and radical Islam, but there is a much more familiar kind of 20th century politics going on here, which I think is probably more consequential in the long run than terrorism or that sort of thing,” Jones said in a Journal interview.
Driven partly by mutual enmity and partly by suspicion, Riyadh and Tehran have increasingly sought to contain and confront each other on battlegrounds across the region, from Yemen to Syria. Jones will explore what drives Saudi Arabia’s fears about Iran and how the kingdom is pursuing its interests.
“I think that over the last five years what we’ve seen is a kind of attempt to overturn the 20th century political order in the region,” Jones said. “In parallel with that is the invasion of Iraq in 2003, and preceding that the rise of Iran, the Saudis emerged in the context of the Arab uprisings as the region’s most powerful Arab state and sought to roll back democratic challenges.
“They had supported counterrevolutionary forces. The question is, why? I want to argue that there are a couple of linked things: One is anxieties about domestic politics in Saudi Arabia but also anxieties about Iranian influence in the region.”
Jones said U.S. foreign policy with respect to Saudi Arabia, in particular, is convoluted and sometimes contradictory. Recent diplomatic overtures by President Barack Obama’s administration — most recently nuclear negotiations that eased sanctions in exchange for curbs on Iran’s nuclear ambitions — caused the Saudi government great anxiety. At the same time, the U.S. is selling Saudi Arabia weapons and providing intelligence to the Saudis for their war in Yemen.
“The U.S. seems to be operating on both sides of this tense relationship between Iran and Saudi (Arabia) instead of trying to bring them together in some meaningful way, which by the way is probably the key to peace in Syria,” Jones said. “Syria is close to Iran, and the Saudis are supporting militants on the ground there.
“The U.S. is trying to retain a little bit of the old while it pursues a little of the new, and those two things are at odds with one another,” he said.
Jones noted that Obama has openly criticized Saudi Arabia’s human rights record but continues to endorse brisk business between the repressive regime
and American defense contractors.
“On the one hand, the U.S. government has continued to favor the status quo with respect to the Saudis — the weapons pipeline and what the Americans call security architecture in the gulf, which is basically a massive military presence,” Jones said. “It’s designed primarily to protect the Saudis and other Arab oil producers from various threats. The U.S. understands that Middle East oil is critical to maintaining a balanced price structure and supply line.”
Jones said Saudi Arabia has become more aggressive in the region but at least in part because of insecurities about its own power in the area.
There is the perception that Saudi Arabia is incredibly strong, that it is a wealthy regional power and that it throws its weight around,” Jones said. “What I want people to think about is … that they have this overconfident, anxious reaction in a difficult neighborhood that reveals more about the limits of Saudi power than its strengths.”
“And what does that mean for the kind of relationship we should have with them?” he added. “Are they a productive power or a dangerous power that can lead us into a difficult relationship?”