Trump faces weapons decision
WASHINGTON — The Pentagon has begun briefing key allies on plans for advanced weapons technologies aimed at offsetting Russian and Chinese military gains. But the next round of these discussions is on hold awaiting approval of the programs by the Trump administration.
Deputy Defense Secretary Robert Work said that he met in early November for “formal collaborations” with close foreign partners to explain the high-tech weapons systems, which are aimed at restoring U.S. dominance in conventional warfare. This approach, which seeks to leverage U.S. leadership in computer technology, is known within the Pentagon by the cumbersome moniker, the “third offset strategy.”
The handoff to the next administration is delicate. During the Obama administration, the Pentagon has become increasingly worried about Russian and Chinese improvements in weapons technology and their aggressive, risktaking behavior. The push for new weapons systems reflects those fears. But President-elect Donald Trump has said he hopes to improve relations with Russia, a process that might be complicated by a new high-tech arms race.
Work summarized an unclassified version of the briefing he shared with allies. It proposes interlocking systems of computer-driven sensors, battle-management networks, kinetic weapons and logistics. The aim is to create systems that are so fast and pervasive that they can overwhelm what Work described as an adversary’s “OODA loop,” meaning its capacity for “observation, orientation, decision and action.”
Work briefed Trump’s transition team about these technologies on Tuesday. He also shared with them a summary prepared by the Pentagon’s Office of Net Assessment describing in graphical form the declining U.S. edge, or “overmatch,” in conventional weapons, relative to Russia and China.
“Our hope is that, obviously, this thinking ... will be accepted in some way, shape or form by the new administration,” he said.
The power of the new systems comes from their ability to fuse different sensors, platforms and weapons, and to coordinate unmanned systems on land, sea, in the air and underwater. Some of these systems sound like video-game warfare, and others have an ominous resemblance to “killer robots” or swarms of tiny drones.
The value of such ultra-high-tech battle networks, from the Pentagon’s perspective, is that they would radically complicate a potential adversary’s ability to plan an attack — and thereby, in theory, provide better deterrence.
Work warned against halting or slowing the new programs. “We have this momentum built up now inside the department,” he said, noting that the challenge wasn’t just to develop the technologies, but to incorporate them into the U.S. military’s doctrine, training and war-gaming exercises.
Would this new generation of weapons provide greater strategic stability with Russia and China, or more instability? Of the many nationalsecurity issues facing Trump, this is among the most consequential.