Rain, snow ease NM drought
Long-range forecast less encouraging, with precipitation over next 3 months likely below normal
An abundance of rain and snow earlier this year has eased New Mexico’s drought picture and pumped up the state’s snowpack.
But don’t start counting on record spring runoff because dry weather looms in the forecast.
Many parts of the state received up to four times the normal precipitation in January and nearly all New Mexico’s mountain ranges enjoy snowpacks at or above normal.
Albuquerque shared the love, getting 1.04 inches of rainfall in January, or about three times the normal 0.35 inches for the month — the ninth wettest January on record.
“This is the wettest start to a calendar year since 2005,” Kerry Jones, a National Weather Service meteorologist, said of Albuquerque’s rainfall total.
The weather this week should remind New Mexicans that we live in a desert.
Mild, sunny weather will dominate the week, with highs in the 50s and 60s forecast across much of the state into the weekend. Albuquerque can expect a high of 56 today.
For now, New Mexicans can take heart from a wet, snowy January.
Some parts of New Mexico, particularly in the north, were buried in snow in January, which bodes well for a good spring runoff this year for the first time since 2010, Jones said.
“We’re off to a good start,” he said.
New Mexico could use a change of luck. The state’s weather was unusually warm and dry in 2016.
Six months in 2016 were among the 10 warmest since record-keeping began in the 1890s, and three were among the driest.
So far, 2017 is off to a better start, particularly in the state’s northern mountains.
Winter storms in January dumped 68.5 inches of snow in Chama, making it the town’s second snowiest January on record. The Chama River Basin has 200 percent of normal snowpack for the season.
The Sangre de Cristo and Jemez mountains, and the Gila, Mimbres, Rio Hondo and Pecos river basins all have above-normal snowpack.
Much of New Mexico also received above-normal rainfall in January.
Roswell got 1.09 inches of rain in January, nearly three times the average of 0.38 inches for the month.
The rainfall “has been pretty widespread,” Jones said.
All the rain and snow have trimmed drought-stricken areas of New Mexico.
As of Jan. 26, the most recent drought data available, just under 12 percent of the state was listed as abnormally dry and about 2.5 percent was listed in moderate drought.
Just three months ago, more than half the state was listed as abnormally dry and nearly 4 percent was in moderate drought.
But last year demonstrated that a wet winter and a healthy snowpack doesn’t necessarily result in good spring runoff.
In 2016, a dry, windy spring destroyed much of New Mexico’s snowpack.
In 2016, “there were no significant winter storms in February or March,” Jones said. “We don’t want to see a flat line like we did last year at this time.”
The long-range forecast isn’t promising.
Over the next three months, national forecasters predict a strong likelihood of below-normal rain and snowfall for New Mexico.
“With below normal precipitation forecast, it doesn’t look too good so far,” said Randall Hergert, a National Weather Service meteorologist.