Clumsy Trump hands a lifeline to Mexico’s president
Mexican President Enrique Peña Nieto of the PRI party assumed office in 2012. Since becoming president, his popularity ratings have declined due to issues such as scandals involving his family and snafus committed during press conferences.
During the past year, the peso has severely depreciated against the dollar and his administration removed subsidies on gasoline throughout the country, which made prices skyrocket. Various groups have taken to the streets in protest and attempted to block the international bridges with the U.S. Needless to say, his popularity plummeted, with some polls giving him a 12 percent favorable rating among his countrymen. The final two years of Peña Nieto’s term did not look promising as the attacks upon him by politicians, farmers and businesspeople have intensified.
Peña Nieto’s problems started creating hope and momentum for leftist-leaning parties in Mexico that saw a golden opportunity to win the presidency in 2018. One of these is the PRD, whose most famous member, Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador, has run and lost as the party’s candidate during the past two presidential elections. During both campaigns, Lopez Obrador espoused a populist agenda, including pulling the reins back on free trade, and a nationalist slant that targeted the U.S. as a problem, not an ally.
On Aug. 31, 2016, against the wishes of many Mexicans who were outraged at candidate Donald Trump’s comments calling some Mexicans rapists and murderers, Peña Nieto hosted a visit by Trump to Mexico City. A private meeting was held in which the two men allegedly discussed issues such as security and trade, followed by an awkward press conference. The results for Peña Nieto were catastrophic and he was lambasted by all sides in the press for hosting an individual considered hostile to Mexico without publicly calling him out on the issues. Peña Nieto’s popularity ratings nosedived and he appeared well on his way to becoming one of the most unpopular presidents in Mexican history.
However, the Trump factor has proven to be almost magical, not only for causing Peña Nieto’s popularity ratings to go down, but for recently providing him a way to quickly perform a drastic comeback. Trump and Peña Nieto were slated to meet in Washington, D.C., on Jan. 31 to establish a dialogue on a variety of issues between both countries. Prior to the meeting, Trump elevated the rhetoric on scrapping the North American Free Trade Agreement and forcing a 20 percent import tax on Mexican items to help pay for his proposed border wall. Peña Nieto, who has handled Trump’s insults diplomatically and without retaliation, finally had enough and he informed Trump that he was canceling the meeting.
Immediately after he sent notice of standing up to Trump, a groundswell of support was bestowed upon him by a wide array of Mexicans representing different sectors of Mexican society. In short, Trump has handed Peña Nieto a gift, and a way to regain confidence and popularity in Mexico, while at the same time giving his party a way to hedge against the rise of other parties benefiting from past problems. It remains to be seen if Peña Nieto’s harder approach in dealing with Trump will continue, but it certainly seems to be politically effective for him at home.
So far, Trump shows no pulling back on his insults and diplomatic clumsiness with Mexico. On a Jan. 27 phone call with Peña Nieto, Trump told the Mexican president that, if the Mexican government could not deal with the “bad hombres” down there, he might have to send troops to deal with the situation. Trump stated that he said this in a lighthearted manner. However, Mexican memories are very strong and the invasion by the U.S. during the U.S.-Mexico War of 1846, in which Mexico lost more than a third of its territory to the U.S., and the invasion of Gen. John Pershing’s U.S. army in pursuit of Pancho Villa in 1916, are still sore subjects in the country. Any “lighthearted” jokes by a U.S. president are going to be interpreted in the worst way possible, especially by one whose unorthodox style is still not understood by many people across the world.
Trump might succeed in doing what many people thought was impossible — making Peña Nieto a popular president with the general population in his last two years of office. As his country is struggling to understand the nature of its relationship with the U.S. going forward, Peña Nieto is being empowered by the antagonistic approach of the Trump administration. Unfortunately, while this helps a Mexican president and party struggling with popularity issues in the short term, it does not portend well for U.S.-Mexico relations in the future.