AMERICAN LEAGUE FORECAST
Texas Rangers beat writer Gerry Fraley breaks down how he sees the American League divisions unfolding this season.
AL East
In his first managerial job, Aaron Boone inherits a star-studded lineup with the New York Yankees.
The Yankees led the American League in homers (241) and finished second in runs per game (5.30) last season. They have added another slugger, picking up Giancarlo Stanton from Miami. He led the majors in homers last season with 59, seven more than new teammate Aaron Judge.
Boston won the division last season. It seems as if the Red Sox are now chasing the Yankees.
1. NEW YORK YANKEES — The power is obvious, but do not forget this club allowed only 4.07 runs per game last season, second-lowest total in the league. The lineup is loaded with strikeouts, which can produce some team-wide slumps.
2. BOSTON RED SOX — Hard to believe the Red Sox won 93 games and the division last season with an un-Boston type offense. They ranked last in the league for homers and next-to-last in slugging percentage. J.D. Martinez, who had 45 homers last season, will be counted on to fill the power void. 3. TORONTO BLUE JAYS — If starters J.A. Happ and Aaron Sanchez bounce back to their 2016 form, the Jays can compete for a wild-card spot. If they do not, it will be a long summer in Ontario. The Jays should start looking for a new shortstop. Troy Tulowitzki looks to be finished at age 33. 4. BALTIMORE ORIOLES — Shortstop Manny Machado should be the player around whom the Orioles build. Instead, Machado has one foot out the door as the Orioles look to trade him before he reaches free agency. Right-hander Dylan Bundy is a fly-ball pitcher whose home park penalizes that style. 5. TAMPA BAY RAYS — The trade of third baseman Evan Longoria, the club’s best player, signaled another teardown is underway. The Rays are speeding toward a losing record for the fourth time in the last five seasons.
AL Central
The Cleveland Indians are living proof good things can happen when a club identifies a core and stays with it.
This will be Terry Francona’s sixth season as Cleveland’s manager. The Indians have had five consecutive winning seasons, reaching 102 wins last year. They have been to the playoffs three times and took the Chicago Cubs the distance in the 2016 World Series.
There has been a churn of the roster. There always is.
But many of the key elements from Francona’s first season remain: ace right-hander Corey Kluber, second baseman Jason Kipnis and outfielder Michael Brantley.
The Indians have dominated the Central, where Minnesota is the only other team that seems interested in winning.
1. CLEVELAND INDIANS — Kluber is 36-13 with a 2.71 ERA and 10.6 strikeouts per nine innings the last two regular seasons. Kluber and right-hander Carlos Carrasco give the Indians a 1-2 rotation punch that no one in the Central can come close to matching. Losing streaks will be rare for the Indians.
2. MINNESOTA TWINS — The Twins have the division’s most dynamic player in 24-year-old center fielder Byron Buxton. If Buxton’s offense catches up to his defense, he can win an MVP. Minnesota helped a thin rotation by picking up righthander Jake Odorizzi in Tampa Bay’s fire sale but is one arm short. 3. CHICAGO WHITE SOX — After five consecutive losing seasons, the White Sox
are loaded with young talent obtained through tear-it-down deals. The next step is to develop the core of young added players, such as 22-year-old second baseman Yoan Moncada and 23-year-old righthander Lucas Giolito.
4. KANSAS CITY ROYALS — The Royals had their run, winning two consecutive American League pennants and taking the World Series in 2015. They are in the rebuilding stage of the small-market cycle now. Middle infielder Adalberto Mondesi and designated hitter Jorge Soler are on the verge of going from top prospects to busts.
5. DETROIT TIGERS — The Tigers lost 98 games last season. The total will rise as the club begins a rebuilding program that should have started several years ago. The process starts with the introduction of third baseman Jeimer Candelario to the lineup and slugging outfielder Christin Stewart likely to arrive around midseason.
AL West
Center fielder Mike Trout arrived in the majors in 2011 at age 19. He has won the American League Most Valuable Player award twice and finished second three times.
And his team, the Los Angeles Angels, has been to the playoffs only once in that span and did not win a game.
The Angels are guilty of not building a core around an ideal centerpiece player in Trout. They get another chance with Shohei Ohtani, the 23-year-old Japanese two-way standout.
Ohtani could be the first player since Babe Ruth, in 1918, to have 100 innings pitched and 200 at-bats in a season.
The Angels also are considering going to a six-man rotation to keep Ohtani on his schedule in Japan. There have been attempts at a six-man rotation over brief periods in the majors but never for a full season.
“I sure hope it’s not an experiment,” Angels manager Mike Scioscia said. “I don’t know if we want to be experimenting with a championship run.”
1. HOUSTON ASTROS — The Astros kept their core together and have a strong chance at becoming the first team to win consecutive World Series since the New York Yankees in 1999-2000. Houston did not retain players who accounted for only six at-bats and 1⅔ innings pitched in the World Series.
2. LOS ANGELES ANGELS — The additions of second baseman Ian Kinsler and Zack Cozart, switching from shortstop to third, make a good defensive club even better. They combine with superb shortstop Andrelton Simmons, who had the best runs-saved score in the majors according to The Fielding Bible at 32, and Gold Glove-winning catcher Martin Maldonado.
3. TEXAS RANGERS — No matter how many starters they use, the Rangers face a rotation shortfall. The projected six-man rotation combined for 44 wins last season. Only three of the projected starters — Cole Hamels, Matt Moore and Martin Perez — worked 100 innings. The Rangers have not made it from start to finish with the same closer during manager Jeff Banister’s three seasons.
4. SEATTLE MARINERS — The Mariners have the longest current streak without a playoff appearance at 16 seasons. There is no reason to see that changing this season. The constant roster churning by general manager Jerry DiPoto has kept the club from building continuity. A full season from left-hander James Paxton would help.
5. OAKLAND A’S — The Athletics are headed to their fourth consecutive lastplace finish. The franchise last did that in 1940-43, while in Philadelphia. Oakland is a terrible defensive team, particularly in the outfield and at shortstop. Those four spots were a minus 45 for runs saved last season according to The Fielding Bible, worst score in the majors.