Trump should reject idea of an off-and-on summit
The Nobel committee will presumably be disappointed, but President Donald Trump’s summit with North Korea dictator Kim Jong Un should stay canceled.
The meeting was more likely to serve Kim’s interests than ours and could have begun unraveling the pressure campaign, our most reliable leverage against the regime.
The past week has shown that the North Koreans aren’t to be underestimated — easy to forget because the regime is not just heinous and evil, but ridiculous. Pyongyang wrapped the president around “the Libyan model” and got him to go wobbly on rapid and complete denuclearization.
The Hermit Kingdom’s existence depends on its shrewd diplomatic gamesmanship with the West, winning concessions that give it an economic lifeline while preserving and advancing its weapons systems.
While Trump imagined doing what no other president has, solving the conflict on the Korean Peninsula, the North Koreans surely believed they could get Trump to do what other presidents have done — give it a favorable deal.
Although the North Koreans had early success in starting a negotiation over a negotiation that pushed Trump, at least momentarily, to soften the core U.S. demand for swift denuclearization. But the president showed he has his limits, or at least wants to re-establish leverage, with his starkly worded letter canceling the summit.
It’s characteristically Trumpian. It’s informal — telling Kim not to hesitate to call or write — and includes a threat not so subtly wrapped in a hope for peace: “You talk about your nuclear capabilities, but ours are so massive and powerful that I pray to God they will never have to be used.”
The letter leaves open the possibility for a summit happening. It must be difficult to give up on the prospective signature foreign policy triumph of his presidency. Yet Trump would be better-served swearing off the idea of a high-stakes, mediagenic tete-a-tete leading to a fundamental breakthrough.
There’s every reason to think that the North Koreans want the on-and-off summit, whatever their bombast at the moment. It’s a prestige boost to Kim. There’s possible strategic benefits of a good meeting. Kim would presumably be deferential to Trump and tell him what he wants to hear in hopes of a warm embrace and encouraging words at summit’s end.
If a meeting went well, South Korea would push to send humanitarian relief to the North and begin economic projects with Pyongyang. We would be hardpressed to deny the South, then the policy of maximum pressure would be on the way to steadily loosening pressure. If this isn’t their ultimate goal, the North Koreans have learned nothing from the past 30 years.
The remote chance exists that the North is willing to give up its nuclear weapons. If so, let the North Koreans demonstrate their good faith. Meantime, maximum pressure should continue and ramp up.
Trump loves high drama and believes he can size up anyone across the negotiating table. That makes a summit alluring to him, but he’d be better off playing a round of golf.