Texas holds economic edge
Rapid population growth gives state several advantages
HOUSTON — Texas’ rapidly increasing population will give the state an economic edge in coming years as the United States wrestles with sluggish growth in both the labor force and productivity, two trends that could weigh on the nation’s economic future, said Robert Kaplan, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
Kaplan, in a recent interview with Houston Chronicle editors and reporters, said the number of people living in Texas has grown from 22.5 million about a decade ago to more than 28 million and could rise above 40 million over the next quarter century, enabling it to outperform the nation as a whole in coming years, Kaplan said. Population is one of two key drivers of economic growth, not only providing workers needed by businesses, but also customers who buy houses, cars and other goods and services.
“At a time where rest of the country is challenged by aging populations, slowing workforce growth and a loss of working-age population, with this population growth, Texas is bucking a lot of those trends,” Kaplan said. “Texas is extremely well positioned.”
The U.S. economy is strong, at or near full employment nine years after the Great Recession ended in 2009. The unemployment rate is 3.9 percent, the lowest in nearly two decades, while the economy this year is
expected to grow at a pace near 3 percent. But the national economy faces several challenges that federal, state and local policymakers will need to address to maintain healthy economic growth in coming years, Kaplan said.
The biggest of those challenges is demographic. The nation’s population is aging and leaving the workforce, creating potential shortages that will slow the production of goods and services. The labor participation rate — the proportion of people ages 16 to 64 working or looking for work — has fallen from 66 percent in 2007 to 62.8 percent today. The Dallas Fed projects that figure could slip below 61 percent over the next several years.
In an effort to bolster the nation’s workforce, Dallas Fed researchers have said the United States would be well-served to develop a skills- and employer-based immigration system, in which government agencies figure out the kind of jobs that are open and adapt immigration policies to fit the needs of the job market.
“If you think you’re going to cut immigration growth by half, you have to recognize that’s inconsistent with growing GDP,” Kaplan said.
Texas is flush with newcomers, but it faces its own workforce challenges. As technology plays a larger role in the economy, skills will play an ever more important role and workers will need to adjust to changing industries and jobs. State policymakers, he said, should take steps to improve early childhood literacy, secondary education and college readiness — more than half of the state’s college students don’t finish with degrees within six years.
In addition, Kaplan said, the state should dramatically beef up training in high schools and junior colleges for skilled middleclass job openings that don’t require four-year college degrees.
The Dallas Fed projects Texas employment will grow between 3 percent and 3.5 percent in 2018, and the state’s economy could grow by at least 4 percent, well above the 2.5 percent to 2.7 percent in economic growth projected for the United States this year. The state unemployment rate was 4.1 percent in April.